金华市大气污染物短期暴露对居民死亡和寿命损失年的影响

Effects of short-term exposure to air pollutants on death and years of life lost in Jinhua City

目的探讨细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))、二氧化氮(NO_(2))、二氧化硫(SO_(2))和臭氧(O_(3))短期暴露对居民死亡和寿命损失年(YLL)的影响。方法通过浙江省金华市环境监测中心和金华市气象局收集2014—2021年金华市金东区、婺城区的大气污染物和气象资料,通过浙江省慢性病监测信息管理系统收集同期居民死亡资料,采用广义相加模型分析大气污染物短期暴露对居民死亡和YLL的影响。结果单污染物模型结果显示,PM_(2.5)短期暴露对居民死亡和YLL的影响均在累积滞后2 d时最大,效应值分别为1.064%(95%CI:0.450%~1.682%)和2.084(95%CI:1.003~3.165)人年;SO_(2)短期暴露对居民YLL的影响在当日最大,效应值为2.432(95%CI:0.610~4.254)人年;NO_(2)和O_(3)短期暴露对居民死亡和YLL的影响无统计学意义(均P>0.05)。性别和年龄分层结果显示,PM_(2.5)累积滞后2 d时对女性、≥65岁居民死亡和YLL的影响有统计学意义;SO_(2)在当日对女性、≥65岁居民YLL的影响有统计学意义(均P<0.05)。双污染物模型结果显示,在PM_(2.5)、SO_(2)中分别纳入NO_(2)后,对居民死亡和YLL的影响有统计学意义,效应值较单污染物模型升高;在PM_(2.5)中纳入SO_(2)或O_(3)后,对居民死亡和YLL的影响有统计学意义,效应值较单污染物模型降低(均P<0.05)。结论PM_(2.5)短期暴露可增加居民死亡和YLL风险,SO_(2)短期暴露可增加居民YLL风险,对女性和≥65岁居民的影响更为明显。

Objective To explore the effects of short-term exposure to four air pollutants,namely fine particulate matter(PM_(2.5)),nitrogen dioxide(NO_(2)),sulfur dioxide(SO_(2))and ozone(O_(3)),on death and years of life lost(YLL).Methods Air pollutants and meteorological data in Jindong District and Wucheng District of Jinhua City,Zhejiang Province from 2014 to 2021 were collected through Jinhua Environmental Monitoring Center and Jinhua Meteorological Bureau.Death data of residents during the same period was collected through Zhejiang Province Chronic Disease Monitoring Informa⁃tion Management System.The effects of short-term exposure to four air pollutants on death and YLL were analyzed us⁃ing a generalized additive model.Results The results of single-pollutant model analysis showed that the lagged effect of short-term exposure to PM_(2.5)on death and YLL was the largest at cumulative lags of 2 days,with effect size of 1.064%(95%CI:0.450%-1.682%)and 2.084(95%CI:1.003-3.165)person-years,respectively;the effect of short-term exposure to SO_(2)on YLL was the largest on the same day,with an effect size of 2.432(95%CI:0.610-4.254)person-years;short-term exposure to NO_(2)and O_(3)had no statistically significant effects on death and YLL(both P>0.05).The results of gender-and age-stratified analysis showed that short-term exposure to PM_(2.5)had significant lagged effects on death and YLL among females and residents aged 65 years and above at cumulative lags of 2 days;short-term expo⁃sure to SO_(2)had significant effects on YLL among females and residents aged 65 years and above on the same day(both P<0.05).The results of dual-pollutant model analysis showed that after the inclusion of NO_(2)in PM_(2.5)and SO_(2),the effects on death and YLL were statistically significant,with the effect size being higher compared to the single-pol⁃lutant model;after the inclusion of SO_(2)or O_(3)in PM_(2.5),the effects on death and YLL were statistically significant,with the effect size being lower compared to the single-pollutant model(all P<0.05).Conclusion Short-term exposure to PM_(2.5)may increase the risk of death and YLL,and short-term exposure to SO_(2)may increase the risk of YLL among residents,with more significant impacts on female and residents aged 65 years and above.