海南岛冬季瓜菜寒害气象指标及发生规律研究

Meteorological Index and Occurrence Regularity of Chilling Injury to Winter Vegetables in Hainan Island

利用海南岛18个气象站的1971—2020年冬季(12月至翌年2月)气象数据和灾情资料,构建考虑阴雨寡照影响、能量化寒害过程影响程度且具备生物学特征的冬季瓜菜寒害气象指标。在此基础上结合Mann-Kendall趋势检验法和ArcGIS技术,得出海南岛冬季瓜菜寒害时空变化规律。结果表明:冬季各月及各月轻至重度瓜菜寒害发生概率较高的地区主要分布在海南岛西北部和中部,出现概率较低的地区主要分布在西部、南部、东部沿海一带。冬季各月瓜菜寒害均主要以轻、中度等级为主,二者占比高达88.3%。3个月中,1月瓜菜寒害发生次数最多(占比达48.6%),瓜菜轻至重度寒害亦均在1月出现最多(占比分别为50.2%、43.4%和40.2%)。近50年海南岛冬季各月瓜菜寒害年发生次数不显著减少的站点占多数(占比分别为83.3%、94.4%和72.2%),各月不同等级瓜菜寒害中除2月重度瓜菜寒害年发生次数呈增加趋势的站点较多(占比38.9%)外,其余等级瓜菜寒害年发生次数不显著减少的站点亦占多数(占比61.1%~88.9%)。冬季各月不同等级瓜菜寒害的影响范围均按寒害轻至重顺序明显缩小。3个月之间相比,12月和2月瓜菜寒害影响范围接近且明显小于1月,轻度和中度寒害影响范围月之间亦表现出类似规律,重度寒害影响范围12月和1月接近且明显大于2月。近50年海南岛冬季各月及各月所有等级瓜菜寒害影响范围均在缩小。总体而言,近50年海南岛冬季瓜菜寒害年发生次数减少、影响范围缩小,对海南岛冬季瓜菜种植有利。但2月东、中、西部地区瓜菜重度寒害年发生次数在增加,需加以关注。

Using the meteorological data and disaster information of 18 meteorological stations in Hainan Island in winter(from December to February of the next year)of 1971 to 2020,this paper constructed the meteorological index of chilling injury to winter vegetables with biological characteristics which not only considered the influence of overcast rain and few sunlight,but also could quantify the influence of previous cold injury processes.Combining Mann-Kendall trend test method and ArcGIS techniques,the spatiotemporal change law of chilling injury to winter vegetables in Hainan Island was obtained.The areas with high probability of chilling injury to vegetables in December,January and February and the areas with high probability of light,medium and severe chilling injury to vegetables in each month were mainly distributed in the northwest and middle of Hainan Island,while the areas with low probability were mainly distributed in the west-south-east coastal regions.The chilling injury to vegetables in each month was mainly light and moderate grade,accounting for about 88.3%.Among the three months,chilling injury to vegetables occurred most frequently in January(48.6%),and chilling injury of all grades to vegetables also occurred most frequently in January(50.2%,43.4%and 40.2%respectively).In the recent 50 years,the annual occurrence times of cold injury to vegetables in each month of winter in Hainan Island were not significantly decreasing in most stations(83.3%,94.4%and 72.2%respectively).Among the different grades of cold injury to vegetables in 3 months,only the annual occurrence times of severe cold injury to vegetables in February showed an increasing trend in many stations(38.9%),the annual occurrence times of other grades of cold injury were also not significantly decreasing in most stations(61.1%-88.9%).The influence scope of different grades of cold injury to vegetables in each month all decreased significantly in the order of light to severe chilling injury.Compared with each other in three months,the influence scope of cold injury to vegetables in Hainan Island were close to each other in December and February and were significantly smaller than that in January,the influence scope of light and moderate cold injury to vegetables also showed similar rules between months,while the influence scope of severe cold injury to vegetables were close to each other in December and January and were significantly larger than that in February.In the recent 50 years,the influence scope of chilling injury to vegetables in Hainan Island in December,January and February and the influence scope of different grades of chilling injury to vegetables in each month were all non-significant shrinking.In general,in the recent 50 years,the annual occurrence times of cold injury to winter vegetables was decreasing and the influence scope was shrinking,which was generally beneficial to the cultivation of winter vegetables in Hainan Island.However,in February,the annual occurrence times of severe cold injury to vegetables in eastern,central and western regions were increasing,which should be paid attention to.