极端自然灾害下我国城市电力系统韧性提升框架与发展策略研究

Framework and Strategy for Enhancing Resilience of China’s Urban Power Systems under Extreme Natural Disasters

城市电力系统是关系到城市安全的关键基础设施。自然灾害下“小概率‒高损失”的极端事件频发,严重威胁城市电力供应的持续性和城市的安全运行。韧性是用于描述系统抵御扰动并快速恢复到正常运行状态的能力,因此针对极端自然灾害下提升城市电力系统韧性至关重要。本文首先对极端自然灾害下城市电力系统韧性提升的内涵进行了概述,明确了城市电力系统应对极端自然灾害的过程。其次,结合极端自然灾害下城市电力系统韧性建设面临的挑战,从“信息‒物理‒应用”3个维度剖析了系统韧性提升的关键要素。在此基础上,构建了极端自然灾害下城市电力系统韧性提升框架,从数智感知‒场景构建‒响应评估‒应急恢复4个角度,剖析了城市电力系统韧性提升的4种关键技术;最后,针对极端自然灾害下城市电力系统韧性提升提出发展建议:加强顶层规划和统筹设计,智慧化升级电力基础设施;攻克核心问题和关键技术,推进技术成果落地应用;健全标准化技术文件,建立统一设备配置原则;推进多元主体协同共治,建立高效应急协同机制。

The urban power system is a critical infrastructure that is essential for urban safety.The frequent occurrence of extreme natural disasters characterized by a low probability and high losses severely threatens the continuity of urban power supply and the overall safety of cities.Resilience is the capability of a system to withstand disturbances and rapidly return to normal operating conditions.Therefore,enhancing the resilience of urban power systems is crucial in the face of extreme natural disasters.This study provides an overview of the implications of enhancing resilience in urban power systems under extreme natural disasters,clarifying the processes by which urban power systems respond to extreme natural disasters.Subsequently,in conjunction with the challenges faced by the resilience construction of urban power systems under extreme natural disasters,key developmental elements for resilience improvement are analyzed from the information,physical,and application dimensions.Based on this,a framework for enhancing the resilience of urban power systems under extreme natural disasters is established.From the perspectives of data-driven sensing,scenario construction,response assessment,and emergency recovery,the framework dissects four critical technologies for improving the resilience of urban power systems.Furthermore,the following recommendations are proposed:(1)strengthening top-level planning and coordinated design to upgrade power infrastructure through smart initiatives;(2)overcoming core issues and critical technologies and promoting the practical application of technological achievements;(3)enhancing standardized technical documents and establishing unified equipment configuration principles;(4)advancing collaborative governance among diverse entities to establish an efficient emergency coordination mechanism.