摘要
基于长三角65岁以上老年人口数量,运用GM(1,1)模型对长三角养老服务需求进行预测,并使用回归分析方法对养老服务需求的影响因素进行实证检验。结果显示:长三角老年人对养老服务的需求大,其中,江苏对养老服务的需求最大,其次为浙江、安徽和上海;预计到2040年老年人对养老床位的需求将达到263.53万张,养老床位供给增速低于人口老龄化速度。回归分析表明:文化水平、工作情况、收入水平等影响因素具有统计学意义,对老年人养老服务需求产生影响。
Based on the number of elderly people aged 65 and above in the Yangtze River Delta,the GM(1,1)model is used to predict the demand for elderly care services in the Yangtze River Delta,and regression analysis is used to empirically test the influencing factors of elderly care service demand.It is shown that the elderly in the Yangtze River Delta have great demand for elderly care services,among which Jiangsu has the largest demand for elderly care services,followed by Zhejiang,Anhui and Shanghai.It is estimated that by 2040,the demand for elderly care beds in the Yangtze River Delta will reach 2.6353 million,and the growth rate of elderly care bed supply is lower than that of population aging.Regression analysis shows that cultural level,work situation,income level and other influencing factors have statistical significance,and have an impact on the demand for elderly care services.
作者
王敏
李芳蓉
施幸
WANG Min;LI Fangrong;SHI Xing(Office of Research,Bengbu University,Bengbu 233040,China;School of Management,Shanghai University of Engineering Science,Shanghai 201600,China;Party Committee Office,Jiaxing Nanhu University,Jiaxing 314001,China)
出处
《常州工学院学报》
2024年第2期39-46,共8页
Journal of Changzhou Institute of Technology
基金
安徽省社会科学界联合会社会科学创新发展研究课题(2021CX091)
安徽省教育厅高校人文社会科学研究项目(SK2021A1180)。
关键词
长三角
养老服务需求
灰色预测
影响因素
Yangtze River Delta
demand for elderly care services
gray prediction
influence factors
