基于统计相关分析的雅砻江周家滑坡主控因素和变形机理研究

Correlation Analysis on Influencing Factors and Deformation Mechanism of the Zhoujia Landslide in Yalong River

周家滑坡位于卡拉水电站上游,具有变形大、方量大、破坏迹象明显的特征,若出现滑坡失稳,可能将造成涌浪、堵江和水库淤积等灾害,威胁大坝施工期及运行期工程安全及环境安全.本文基于lasso-Random Forest(lasso-RF)、Spearman双变量相关性分析方法,依据滑坡现场原位监测数据,对周家滑坡进行了诱发因素相关性及变形破坏机理分析.结果表明:周家滑坡变形与降雨的相关性大于地震因素,变形的主要影响因素为降雨,且降雨对滑坡变形的影响具滞后性;滑坡B1区的表观位移与深部位移相关性较强,滑坡具有整体滑移特征,应当加强对B1区各指标的监测.

The Zhoujia landslide is situated in the upstream of the Kala Hydropower Station,exhibiting features of substantial deformation,evident signs of destruction,and a large volume.If the landslide were to become unstable,it could trigger disasters such as surges,river blockages,and reservoir sedimentation,posing a threat to the safety of both the dam during construction and its subsequent operation,as well as environmental safety.The lasso-Random Forest(lasso-RF)and Spearman correlation analysis are used in this paper.Utilizing monitoring data of the Zhoujia landslide,it conducts an analysis of the correlation between factors and investigates the mechanisms behind deformation and failure.The results indicate that the deformation of the Zhoujia Landslide is more correlated with rainfall than seismic factors,with rainfall being the primary influencing factor.Rainfall has a delayed impact on landslide deformation.The surface displacement in Zone B1 shows a strong correlation with deep-seated displacement,indicating a collective sliding characteristic of the landslide.Therefore,enhanced monitoring of various indicators in Zone B1 is necessary.