“公转铁”政策对地方铁路货运业经济效益影响分析

Influence of Modal Shift from Road to Railway Policy on Economic Effectiveness of Local Railway Freight Industry

为探究“公转铁”政策对我国铁路货运业经济效益的影响,以2018年开始推进的“公转铁”政策为准自然实验,基于19个省份40条地方铁路线的2012—2020年地方铁路数据和地方铁路线所在地区的经济发展数据,运用双重差分模型探究“公转铁”政策对地方铁路货运业经济效益的影响。结果表明,“公转铁”政策短期内对地方铁路的货物周转量促进作用显著,对地方铁路货运业的经济效益有正向影响但不显著。“公转铁”政策带来的货物周转量增长会促进地方铁路运输企业的运输收入增加,但是为适应铁路货物周转量增加而进行的铁路基础设施改造、扩建及铁路运价调整会显著影响运输成本增加,导致短期内“公转铁”政策对地方铁路货运业的经济效益影响不显著。

To explore the influence of the modal shift from road to railway policy on the economic effectiveness of China’s railway freight industry,this paper took the modal shift from road to railway policy promoted in 2018 as a natural experiment.Based on local railway data from 40 local railway lines in 19 provinces and economic development data of the regions where the local railway lines were located during 2012-2020,the paper used the difference-in-difference model to explore the influence of the modal shift from road to railway policy on the economic effectiveness of local railway freight industry.The results show that the modal shift from road to railway policy has a significant effect on promoting the freight turnover of local railways in the short term,and has a positive but not significant impact on the economic effectiveness of the local railway freight industry.The increase in freight turnover brought about by the modal shift from road to railway policy will promote an increase in the transportation revenue of local railway freight companies,but the reconstruction and expansion of railway infrastructure and the adjustment of railway freight rates to adapt to the increase in railway freight turnover will significantly affect transportation costs.As a result,the modal shift from road to railway policy has no significant short-term effect on the economic effectiveness of the local railway freight industry.