基于HFACS模型的军事演训活动风险评估指标体系构建

Construction of a HFACS-based index system for risk assessment of military training activities

基于人因分析与分类系统(HFACS)分析军事演训活动的全面风险,考虑联合军事演训和新域新质作战力量的特点,并突出演训活动的战斗力标准。在改进HFACS模型分析框架的基础上,逐层次细化拆解,建立初步的风险评估指标库,并结合专家知识运用风险矩阵对指标库进行优化。构建人为因素视角下涵盖战斗力的风险、组织管理的风险、不安全行为的前提条件的风险和不安全行为的风险等4个方面以及包含战斗精神、新型主战武器、智能装备等在内的15项极高风险指标、20项高风险指标和8项中风险指标的风险评估指标体系。

Based on the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System(HFACS),the overall risk of military exercises is introduced by considering the characteristics of joint military exercises and new combat forces and the combat power standards of military exercises are highlighted.Under the framework of an improved HFACS model,a preliminary risk assessment index library is established through a layer-by-layer breakdown,and the risk matrix is used to optimise the index library based on expert knowledge.A risk assessment index system from the perspective of human factors is constructed,covering the following four aspects:the combat power risks,organisational management risks,risks associated with unsafe act premises,and risks associated with unsafe acts,including combat spirit,new-generation main battle weapons,and intelligent equipment.The system consists of 15 extremely high risk indexes,20 high risk indexes,and 8 medium risk indexes.