基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的我国医院感染患病率变化趋势及预测

Trend change and prediction of nosocomial infection prevalence in China based on grey GM (1,1) model

目的了解我国医院感染患病率变化趋势,并采用灰色GM(1,1)模型对我国不同规模医院的医院感染患病率进行预测,为医院感染防控提供数据支持和新思路。方法采用描述性流行病学方法分析我国医院感染患病率变化趋势,2008—2016年我国医院感染患病率数据进行灰色GM(1,1)模型构建,2018—2020年数据进行模型验证。采用构建的灰色GM(1,1)模型对2022—2024年我国医院感染患病率进行预测。结果我国医院感染患病率呈下降趋势,随着医院规模的增加医院感染患病率升高。医院感染患病率灰色GM(1,1)模型的精度良好、拟合效果较高。2024年全国、<300张床位医院、300~599张床位医院、600~899张床位医院和≥900张床位医院的医院感染患病率可降为1.00%、0.49%、0.90%、1.13%和2.05%。结论我国医院感染防控效果明显,灰色GM(1,1)模型对我国医院感染患病率有较好的预测效果。

Objective To understand the trend of nosocomial infection prevalence in China,and to predict the nosocomial infection prevalence in hospitals of different scales in China with the gray GM(1,1)model,so as to provide data support and new ideas for prevention and control of nosocomial infection.Methods Descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the trend of nosocomial infection prevalence in China.The grey GM(1,1)model was constructed with data on nosocomial infection prevalence in China from 2008 to 2016,and the model was validated with data from 2018 to 2020.The constructed grey GM(1,1)model was used to predict the prevalence of nosocomial infection in China from 2022 to 2024.Results The prevalence of nosocomial infection in China showed a downward trend.The prevalence of nosocomial infection increased with the increase of hospital scales.The grey GM(1,1)model for the prevalence of nosocomial infection has good accuracy and high fitting effect.In 2024,the prevalence of nosocomial infection in China,in hospitals with<300 beds,in hospitals with 300-599 beds,in hospitals with 600-899 beds,and in hospitals with≥900 beds can be reduced to 1.00%,0.49%,0.90%,1.13%,and 2.05%,respectively.Conclusion The prevention and control effect of nosocomial infection in China is obvious,and the grey GM(1,1)model has a good prediction effect on the prevalence of nosocomial infection in China.