“大城小规”与“小城大规”:城市人口规划偏差之现象、原因与应对

Big Cities with Smaller Plans and Small Cities with Bigger Plans:Phenomenon,Causes and Countermeasures of Urban Population Planning Deviation

城市人口规划是城市总体规划编制的基础性条件。借助“人口规划偏差率”指标,基于不同等级城市历次人口规划目标值与实际值的差距分析发现:“北上广深”4座“大城”的人口规划,均存在低估人口规模的系统性偏误,造成“大城小规”现象。而安顺、嘉峪关等“小城”的人口规划,却存在高估人口规模的系统性偏误,形成“小城大规”现象。人口规划偏差是由多方原因共同导致的结果:既有任何科学预测都无法避免的固有原因,又有人为干预下的外在原因;既有普遍存在的共性因素,也有因城而异的特殊因素。未来应在总体思路上辩证看待城市人口规划的作用与限度,转变“计划式”的政策表达与实践,审视规划与城市问题治理之间的张力,加强规划的过程管理与效果监督,最终促使人口规划值不断向实际值合理回归。

Urban population planning serves as a fundamental condition for the formulation of comprehensive urban plans.Utilizing the“population planning deviation rate”indicator,this study analyzes the disparities between the targeted and actual population values in successive rounds of population planning for cities of different tiers.The findings reveal a systematic underestimation of population size in the four major cities known as Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou,and Shenzhen,leading to the phenomenon of“big cities with smaller plans”.Conversely,smaller cities such as Anshun and Jiayuguan exhibit a systematic overestimation of population size,resulting in the phenomenon of“small cities with larger plans”.This deviation is caused by a multitude of factors,including inherent reasons unavoidable in any scientific prediction and external factors influenced by human interventions.These factors include both universal commonalities and city-specific peculiarities.In the future,we should adopt a dialectical approach to understand the role and limitations of urban population planning.This entails a shift from a“planned economy-style”policy expression and implementation to a nuanced examination of the tension between planning and urban issue governance.Emphasis should be placed on strengthening process management and monitoring the effectiveness of planning,ultimately facilitating a rational convergence of population planning values towards actual values.