内蒙古光伏开发空间适宜性及减排效益研究

Spatial suitability and emission reduction benefits of photovoltaic development in Inner Mongolia

内蒙古自治区作为中国重要的光伏发电基地,近年来盲目建设光伏电站的问题日益突出,掌握区域光伏开发的适宜性、发电潜力和减排效益对光伏产业的健康发展具有重要意义。为了探讨内蒙古自治区光伏开发适宜性与减排效益,综合利用气象、自然地理和经济社会数据,通过构建“气象-地形-位置-植被”光伏开发适宜性综合评价指标体系,利用层次分析法确定评价指标的权重,借助地理信息系统工具对内蒙古自治区光伏开发适宜性进行空间显性评价,进而定量评估在不同开发强度下的光伏发电潜力与减排效益,并对各盟市光伏发电潜力与电力需求进行对比分析。结果表明:(1)内蒙古自治区西部的光伏开发适宜性大于中部和东部,各类适宜区主要分布在西部的阿拉善盟和巴彦淖尔市,光伏开发特别适宜、较适宜和适宜区域的面积占内蒙古自治区总面积的23.66%。(2)内蒙古自治区光伏发电潜力巨大,特别适宜的区域开发12.57%即可满足内蒙古自治区2021年用电量。(3)内蒙古自治区光伏发电潜力与电力需求分布有着较强的空间异质性,空间格局特征显著。(4)内蒙古自治区光伏发电的节能减排效果显著,与传统燃煤火力发电相比,若特别适宜区全部开发,年碳减排量约2.947×10^(9)t,是2021年内蒙古自治区碳排放总量的4.46倍,占我国2021年碳排放总量的21.20%。研究结果为内蒙古自治区光伏电站选址和光伏产业的健康发展提供科学参考和指导建议。

As an important photovoltaic(PV)power generation base,the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region(IMAR),China has seen the problem of blindly constructing PV power stations become more prominent in recent years.It is of great significance to grasp the suitability of regional PV development,power generation potential,and emission reduction benefits for the healthy development of the PV industry.To explore the suitability of PV development in the IMAR and the benefits of emission reduction,this study makes comprehensive use of meteo-rological,natural geographic,economic,and social data,constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system of PV development suitability in the form of meteorology-terrain-location-vegetation,uses an analytic hierarchy process to determine the weights of the evaluation indexes,and performs a spatially explicit evaluation of the suit-ability of PV development in the IMAR with the aid of a geographic information system tool to quantitatively assess the potential of PV power generation and emission reduction benefits under different development intensities.The PV power generation potential of the leagues and cities and the demand for electric power are compared.The results are as follows:(1)The suitability of PV development in the western part of the IMAR is greater than that in the central and eastern parts,and the various suitable areas are mainly located in the western Alagxa League and Bayannur City,with particularly suitable areas for PV development accounting for 23.66%of the total area of the IMAR.(2)The IMAR PV power generation potential is enormous,especially for regional development,where 12.57%of it can meet the IMAR 2021 electricity consumption.(3)The distribution of PV power generation potential and electricity demand in the IMAR has strong spatial heterogeneity,and the spatial pattern is characterized by significant features.(4)The energy saving and emission reduction effect of PV power generation in the IMAR is remarkable.Compared with conventional coal-fired thermal power generation,the annual carbon emission reduction is approximately 2.947×10^(9)t if the development of a special suitable area is performed,which is 4.46 times the total carbon emission of the IMAR in 2021 and accounts for 21.20%of China’s total carbon emission in 2021.These results provide scientific references and guiding suggestions for the placement of PV power stations and the healthy development of the PV industry in the IMAR.