生态保护视角下的黄河流域高质量发展非均衡性及演进趋势分析

Unevenness and evolutionary trend of high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin from an ecological protection perspective

推动黄河流域高质量发展是我国经济建设全面迈入高质量发展的必经之路,客观评价流域发展质量是有效提高发展质量的前提。因此,基于5大发展理念及高质量发展的内涵,构建黄河流域高质量发展评价指标体系,采用TOPSIS评价法测算2010—2021年黄河流域及5大经济增长极60个地级市的高质量发展水平,进而采用Dagum基尼系数和方差分解的方法探究区域非均衡性发展及差异来源,运用Kernel密度估计方法分析区域高质量发展演进趋势。结果表明:(1)样本期间内,沿黄城市高质量发展呈现“N”型变化态势,并具有上升的发展趋势,总体上省会、沿海和资源型城市的发展水平处于领先地位。(2)流域总体差异呈缩小的趋势,区域内、区域之间的差距及变化趋势各不相同。(3)组间差距是高质量发展差异主要的空间来源,支撑环境差异是流域及5大经济增长极差异主要的结构来源。(4)流域及5大经济增长极的演进趋势各不相同,多数区域高质量发展水平持续向好。基于此,提出做好顶层设计方案,加强区域之间合作、打造特色经济增长极,避免同质化竞争、加强中心城市的辐射带动作用及提升经济发展软实力等建议。

Promoting high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin is a necessary path for China’s economic construction to comprehensively move into the high-quality development stage.Objectively evaluating the quality of basin development is the basis for effectively improving the quality of development.Therefore,based on the five development concepts and the connotation of high-quality development,this study constructs an evaluation index system of high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin,measures the high-quality development level of 60 prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin and the 5 economic growth poles from 2010 to 2021 using the TOPSIS evaluation method,explores the regional unbalanced development and the sources of differences using the Dagum Gini coefficient and the variance decomposition method,and applies the Kernel density estimation method to analyze the evolutionary trend of regional high-quality development.The results are as follows:(1)During the sample period,the high-quality development of cities along the Yellow River shows an“N”-shaped change and an upward trend,with the provincial capitals and coastal and resource-based cities lead-ing the development level in general.(2)The overall difference in the basin is narrowing;however,the gap and the trend of change are different within and between regions.(3)Intergroup disparity is the main spatial source of high-quality development differences,and differences in the supporting environment are the main structural source of differences in the basin and the five economic growth poles.(4)The evolutionary trends of the river basin and the five economic growth poles are different,and most of the regions continue to improve their high-quality development levels.Based on these results,suggestions are made to develop a good top-level design program,strengthen cooperation between regions,create special economic growth poles,avoid homogeneous competition,strengthen the radiation-driven role of central cities,and enhance the soft power of economic development.