财政缺口和城镇化对地方债务的影响研究——基于西北五省面板数据

Research on the Impact of Fiscal Gap and Urbanization on Local Debt:Based on Panel Data of Five Northwestern Provinces

文章在分析城镇化建设水平、地方政府财政缺口与债务规模内在机理的基础上,运用2013—2021年西北五省(陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏和新疆)的面板数据,实证分析了地方财政缺口和城镇化水平对地方政府债务规模的影响.结果显示:财政缺口和城镇化水平均与地方政府债务规模呈现显著的正相关关系,但引入城镇化水平和财政缺口的交互项后,城镇化发展会在一定程度上抑制财政缺口对债务规模的扩张作用.最后,针对性地提出了西北地区未来城镇化建设发展的政策建议.

Based on the analysis of the internal mechanism of urbanization construction level,local government fiscal gap and debt size,the article empirically analyzes the impact of local fiscal gap and urbanization level on local government debt size using panel data of five northwestern provinces(Shaanxi,Gansu,Qinghai,Ningxia and Xinjiang) from 2013 to 2021.The results show that both the fiscal gap and the urbanization level show a significant positive correlation with the local government debt size,but after introducing the interaction term between the urbanization level and the fiscal gap,the urbanization development will inhibit the expansionary effect of the fiscal gap on the debt size to a certain extent.Finally,policy recommendations for the future development of urbanization in Northwest China are proposed.