面向规模化空调负荷的聚合调控过程研究

Research on aggregation regulation process for large-scale air conditioning load

近年来,我国电力需求持续增长。为进一步深化电力负荷管理,切实做好迎峰度夏(冬)能源电力保供工作,对深挖空调负荷的调控潜力、完善空调负荷聚合调控机制提出了更高的要求。首先,从物理建模、数据建模两个角度综述空调负荷预测模型和聚合模型,分析不同模型的适用性,并提出适合面向大规模空调负荷的多级聚合模型。然后,围绕调控模型和调控策略讨论现有优化调控进展。最后,结合国内发展现状从算法融合、双碳战略要求、负荷聚合系统高效运行等方面提出发展建议。

In recent years,the demand for electricity continues to grow in China.In order to further deepen the management of electricity load and effectively ensure the supply of energy and electricity during peak summer(winter),higher requirements have been put forward to deeply tap the potential of air conditioning load regulation and improve the mechanism of air conditioning load aggregation regulation.Firstly,the air conditioning load forecasting model and aggregation model from the perspectives of physical modeling and data modeling are summarized,the applicability of different models is analyzed,and a multi-level aggregation model suitable for large-scale air conditioning load is proposed.Then,the current progress in optimizing regulation around regulatory models and strategies is discussed.Finally,based on the current development situation in China,development suggestions are proposed from the aspects of algorithm fusion,dual carbon strategy requirements,and efficient operation of load aggregation systems.