非洲跨国安全风险的传导理论模型研究

Research on the Theory Model of African Security Risk Transnational Transmission

研究海外安全风险的跨界传导对于实现风险的多尺度预警具有重要意义。本文基于安全风险的跨国传导机理和多风险耦合效应,以诱发—扩散—影响三阶段为视角,从不同维度厘清安全风险的跨国传导路径,建立了非洲跨国安全风险传导理论模型。研究表明,基于链式、辐射式、汇聚式、交互式的双维度模式建立的海外安全风险跨界传导理论模型,可为海外安全风险的科学预警提供借鉴。

Research on transnational transmission of overseas security risks has significant implications for achieving multi-scale risk early warning.Based on the mechanisms of transnational transmission of security risks and the coupling effects of multi-risks,this paper takes the three stages of initiation,diffusion,and impact of overseas security risks as the perspective,clarifies the transnational transmission paths of security risks from different dimensions and establishes a theoretical model for the transnational transmission of security risks in Africa.The study indicates that overseas security risk transnational transmission theoretical model that is established based on the dual-dimensional patterns of chain,radiation,convergence,and interaction can provide reference for the scientific early warning of overseas security risks.