形变速率累加法处理的跨断层场地水准资料映震能力分析

The analysis of the reflecting earthquake ability of cross-fault levelling processed by the deformation data accumulation method

应用形变速率累加法处理鲁中地区郯庐断裂带跨断层场地水准观测资料,通过计算6个场地累计30年的水准资料,分析经形变速率累加法处理后的水准资料整体特征,得到其在地震前的异常特征:①在原始水准数据曲线出现大的台阶和转折时,经形变速率累加法处理的水准资料出现异常的频次较高;②处理后的水准资料异常映震效果较好,但存在受地下水位等外界因素影响不能一一对应;③经处理后的水准资料在异常出现后0—24个月内映震效果较好。

The cumulative deformation rate method is applied to the cross-fault levelling in the Tanlu Fault Zone.The characteristics of the cumulative deformation rate before earthquakes were analyzed by calculating the levelling data for the six sites over 30 years.The result shows that:①When the curves of original data show large steps or turns,the levelling data processed by the cumulative deformation rate method show anomalies with high frequency;②The reflecting earthquake ability of levelling data after processed exhibits better,while there still exist some other external factors such as water level affecting the reflecting earthquake ability;③The effective prediction time for earthquake is 0-24 months after the appearance of abnormality.