印度尼西亚2023年回顾与2024年展望

A Retrospect of 2023 and Looking Ahead to 2024 in Indonesia

政治方面,备战大选是2023年印度尼西亚政党政治的核心主题。三大党派联盟的凝聚力因副总统候选人问题而承受考验。“印度尼西亚团结联盟”瓦解,民族觉醒党加入“变革联盟”,民主党易帜支持“印度尼西亚前进联盟”,民主斗争党则与建设团结党结成新同盟。三组候选人分别发布施政纲领并将年轻选民作为争取重点。经济方面,佐科政府实施促增长、保民生的经济政策,大力推进自然资源下游产业发展,积极帮助中小企业解融资之困,重视挖掘绿色经济潜力,多举措稳定物价和汇率,并加大了极端气候下的基本民生保障。全年经济增长率达5.5%,其中加工制造业对经济增长贡献最大,消费是经济增长的主动力,全年实际投资额增长17.3%。出口额因主要贸易伙伴需求不振和国际大宗商品价格回归而萎缩,但外贸出超状态仍然持续。外交方面,印度尼西亚在东盟轮值主席国职位上展现出地区领导力,主导规划东盟发展方向与路径,重点强化区域经济韧性与活力,带领东盟积极深化区域对外经济关系,并试图寻求缅甸困局的突破。展望2024年,大选投票后各党派将围绕选举争议、阵营重组及地方行政首脑选举等事项开展博弈,经济发展形势可能比2023年乐观,外交方面将继续坚持“自主而积极”原则下的务实外交。

Competing for the general election is the core of Indonesian party politics in 2023.The solidity of the party alliances was tested over the vice-presidency.The United Indonesia Coalition(KIB)collapsed,the National Awakening Party(PKB)joined the Coalition for Change,the Democratic Party(PD)changed its support to the Onward Indonesia Coalition(KIM),and the Democratic Struggle Party(PDIP)formed a new alliance with the United Development Party(PPP).The three pairs of candidates released policy guidelines respectively,aiming at gaining the support of young voters.In the field of economy,the Jokowi government implemented policies that promoted growth and improve people's livelihood,including vigorously promoting the downstream industries of natural resources,helping small and medium-sized enterprises to alleviate financing problems,tapping the potential of the green economy,stabilizing prices and Rupiah exchange rate,and increasing efforts to ensure the basic livelihood for people in hardship under extreme climate conditions.Indonesia's economic growth rate reached 5.5%last year,with the processing and manufacturing industry contributing the most to the growth and consumption being the driving force.The actual investment amount increased by 17.3%throughout the year.Export volume shrunk due to sluggish demand from major trading partners and the return of international commodity prices,but the balance of trade surplus still continued.In terms of diplomacy,Indonesia demonstrated regional leadership as the rotating chairman of ASEAN,taking the lead in planning the direction and path of ASEAN's development,focusing on strengthening regional economic resilience and vitality,guiding ASEAN to deepen international economic relations,and trying to seek breakthrough to resolve the Myanmar crisis.Looking ahead to 2024,the political parties in Indonesia will engage in competition over election disputes,alliance restructuring and local elections after the general election;the economic development may be more optimistic than in 2023;and the Jokowi government will adhere to pragmatic diplomacy based on the Free and Active principle.