商业银行数字化转型如何影响风险承担——基于负债成本与信贷选择机制的分析

How the digital transformation of commercial banks affects risk-taking:-Analysis based on debt cost and credit selection behavior

对于商业银行数字化转型如何影响其风险承担水平的研究,既有文献多从数字化场景下的信贷市场技术变化与授信模式调整切入,忽视了银行融资市场的影响。区别于此,本文通过商业银行的城市聚类,使用地区数字普惠金融指数作为地区性商业银行数字化转型程度的代理变量,利用城市商业银行2012—2022年面板数据,从“融”与“贷”两个维度分析商业银行数字化转型对风险承担的影响及其作用机制。实证结论表明:商业银行数字化转型显著增加了商业银行风险承担水平,且表现为信用风险(信贷不良率)与经营稳定性风险(收入波动性)的共同上升。机制分析表明,数字化转型的风险积累通过成本冲击效应而实现,信贷选择效应并不显著,说明商业银行数字化转型所形成的风险积累,实际源自“融”而非“贷”。商业银行缺乏通过信贷溢价释放负债成本压力的能力,导致负债成本的增加最终形成风险积累。此结论可为商业银行更为精准地选择风险控制与管理的业务切入口提供启示。

Regarding the research on how the digital transformation of commercial banks affects their risk-taking level,existing literature mostly focuses on the technological changes and credit model adjustments in the credit market under digital scenarios,ignoring the impact of the bank financing market.In contrast,this article uses urban clustering of commercial banks and the regional digital inclusive finance index as a proxy variable for the degree of digital transformation of regional commercial banks.Using panel data from urban commercial banks from 2012 to 2022,this article analyzes the impact and mechanism of digital transformation of commercial banks on risk taking from the dimensions of"financing"and"lending".The empirical conclusion shows that the digital transformation of commercial banks has significantly increased their risk-taking level,manifested as a joint increase in credit risk(non-performing loan ratio)and operational stability risk(income volatility).Mechanism analysis shows that the risk accumulation of digital transformation is achieved through cost shock effects,while the credit selection effect is not significant,which indicates that the risk accumulation formed by commercial banks'digital transformation actually originates from"financing"rather than"lending".Commercial banks lack the ability to release debt cost pressure through credit premiums,leading to an increase in debt costs and ultimately resulting in risk accumulation.This conclusion can provide insights for commercial banks to more accurately select business entry points for risk control and management.