高等教育强国建设的关键指标、情景预测与战略路径

Key Indicators,Scenario Prediction,and Strategic Path for Building a Powerful Country in Higher Education

党的二十大报告明确指出,科教兴国、加快建设教育强国。高等教育强国是科教兴国的基础和建成教育强国的龙头。从规模、质量、效益三个维度,科学选取高等教育强国可比较指标进行分析,确立高等教育强国建设的参考基准,即高等教育毛入学率达到77%,高等教育投入占国内生产总值比例达到1.59%、高校教师具有博士学位比例达到70%,适龄人群接受高等教育比例达到48%,留学生占高等教育规模比例达到6%。在国家战略引导下,以2025、2030、2035、2050为时间节点开展情景分析与预测,基于中国近10年高等教育发展指标历程研判,明确变化轨迹,探索发展规律;同时基于高等教育强国指标比较基准,倒推时间节点指标变化,分别预测关键指标的达成度。根据教育战略和政策分析,分为高等教育规模扩大与质量提升并重、质量全面提升、强国品质塑造三个阶段,构建愿景、指标、关键举措组成的高等教育强国建设路线图。

The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly points out the tasks of promoting the country through science and education and accelerating the construction of an education powerful country.A powerful country in higher education is the foundation of revitalizing the country through science and education,and the leading force in building a powerful country in education.From the three dimensions of scale,quality,and efficiency,we scientifically select comparable indicators for the construction of a powerful higher education country for analysis,and establish a reference benchmark for the construction of a powerful country in higher education.The gross enrollment rate of higher education reaches 77%,the proportion of higher education investment in GDP reaches 1.59%,the proportion of university teachers with doctoral degrees reaches 70%,the proportion of eligible population receiving higher education reaches 48%,and the proportion of international students in the scale of higher education reaches 6%.Under the guidance of national strategy,scenario analysis and prediction will be carried out at the time nodes of 2025,2030,2035,and 2050.Based on the analysis and judgment of China's higher education development indicators in the past 10 years,the change trajectory will be clarified and the development laws will be explored;at the same time,based on the benchmark of higher education power indicators,the changes in time node indicators are inverted to predict the degree of achievement of key indicators.According to the analysis of education strategies and policies,it is divided into three stages:equal emphasis on expanding the scale and improving the quality of higher education,comprehensively improving the quality,and shaping the quality of a powerful country.A roadmap for building a powerful higher education country is composed of vision,indicators,and key measures.