中老边境地区的黄脊竹蝗适生区分布和入侵路线分析

Distribution Pattern and Invasion Routes of Ceracris kiangsu in China-Laos Border Area

黄脊竹蝗虫害常以大面积危害出现,防治难度大,被列为世界上最重要的森林害虫之一,预测其在我国西南边境的适生区分布格局及入侵迁飞轨迹可以为虫害防治提供前瞻性理论依据。本研究基于MaxEnt模型预测了当前的适生区分布格局和未来2050S在不同气候气候情景下黄脊竹蝗潜在分布的动态变化,并利用WRF模型的昆虫三维轨迹分析程序来模拟出2023年7月22~7月25日黄脊竹蝗的迁飞轨迹。结果表明:(1)当前,黄脊竹蝗在我国的高适生区主要包括在我国云南省的西南方和老挝丰沙里省的北方,主要分布于普洱市江城县和西双版纳傣族自治州勐腊县以及老挝北部的丰沙里省约乌县。(2)与当前气候下的黄脊竹蝗适生面积相比,在2050S SSP126和SSP245气候情景下的适生区总面积都将扩大,而在SSP585气候情景下的适生区面积呈现下降的状态。但适生区分布格局以云南省江城县和老挝丰沙里省约乌县为中心向外扩散的格局仍未改变。(3)2023年7月,西南季风和热带气旋所产生的西南低空急流持续贯穿我国西南边境地区,为黄脊竹蝗迁飞入境提供了便利条件,7月22~24日这三日的气流有利于老挝黄脊竹蝗入侵我国,且与其入侵我国西南边境地区的实际时间一致。进一步对虫源地的分析,对中国和老挝的黄脊竹蝗虫害监测和防控具有重要现实意义。

Ceracris kiangsu infestation often causes large-scale damage and is considered one of the most important forest pests in the world.Predicting the distribution pattern of suitable habitats and the migration trajectory of the locusts in the southwestern border area of China can provide a forward-looking theoretical basis for pest control.In this study,the MaxEnt model was used to predict the current distribution pattern of suitable habitats and the dynamic changes in the potential distribution of Ceracris kiangsu under different climate scenarios by 2050s.Furthermore,the WRF model's insect three-dimensional trajectory analysis program was used to simulate the migratory trajectory of Ceracris kiangsu from July 22 to July 24,2023.The results show that:(1)Currently,the high adaptation areas of the Ceracris kiangsu are mainly concentrated in the southwest of Yunnan Province,China,and the northern part of Phongsali Province,Laos,specifically in Jiangcheng County,Pu'er City and Mengla County,Xishuangbanna Dai Autonomous Prefecture of China,as well as Yot Ou of Phongsali Province,Laos.(2)Compared with the current suitable area for the Ceracris kiangsu under the current climate,the suitable area will expand in the 2050s under the climate scenarios SSP126 and SSP245,while it will decrease under the climate scenario SSP585.Overall the distribution pattern of the suitable area,centered around Jiangcheng County in Yunnan Province and Yot Ou County in Phongsali Province,Laos,spreading outwards,remains unchanged.(3)The simulated invasion trajectory of the Ceracris kiangsu using the WRF model is consistent with the actual timing of their invasion in the southwestern border area of Yunnan Province,China.In summer,the southwest monsoon and tropical cyclones create a low-level jet stream that extends across Yunnan Province,China and Laos,facilitating the migration of the yellow-spined bamboo locust from northern Laos to Yunnan Province.Further analysis of the source areas of the locust is of great practical significance for monitoring and controlling the locust pest in China and Laos.