流域国水资源短缺性组合评价模型及应用

Combined Evaluation Model and Application of Water Resources Shortage in Basin Countries

随着全球淡水资源的日益短缺,跨境水资源分配的不公平性已成为引发流域国水资源冲突的主要根源之一。首先,通过考察美、非、亚、欧典型跨境河流,梳理流域国水资源短缺性的影响因素。其次,针对跨境河流的特点,构建流域国水资源短缺性评价的8个评价指标,包括人均水资源量、产水模数等反映水资源自然禀赋和水资源供给能力的指标,总用水量、农业用水量占比等反映水资源需求状况的指标,以及内部可再生淡水资源等反映替代水源的指标。再次,构建流域国水资源短缺性指数测度模型,在通过加性加权法、物元关联法、改进TOPSIS法分别进行评价的基础上,运用基于循环修正的组合评价模型集成评价结果,并通过Kendall协和系数法开展事前一致性检验,通过Spearman法开展事后一致性检验。最后,结合澜湄流域开展应用研究,测算澜湄流域内六个流域国的水资源短缺性状况,验证模型的可行性和实用性。

With the increasing shortage of fresh water resources in the world,the unfair distribution of cross-border water resources has become one of the main causes of water resources conflicts in the basin countries.First,by investigating typical cross-border rivers in America,Africa,Asia and Europe,the influencing factors of water scarcity in the basin countries are sorted out.Second,according to the characteristics of cross-border rivers,eight evaluation indicators for water scarcity evaluation of basin countries are constructed,including indicators reflecting natural endowment of water resources and water supply capacity such as per capita water resources and water production modulus,indicators reflecting water demand such as total water consumption and the proportion of agricultural water consumption,and indicators reflecting alternative water sources such as internal renewable fresh water resources.Third,the water resources shortage index measurement model of basin countries is constructed.On the basis of the evaluation by additive weighting method,matter-element correlation method and improved TOPSIS method,the combined evaluation model based on cyclic correction is used to integrate the evaluation results,and the Kendall coefficient method is used to carry out the prior consistency test,and the Spearman method is used to conduct post-event consistency test.Finally,an applied study is carried out in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin to calculate the water resources shortage situation of the six countries within the basin and verify the feasibility and practicability of the model.