广东省某市碳达峰预测研究——基于Kaya模型和情景分析法

按照国家在2030年前碳排放达峰、力争在2060年前实现碳中和的愿景,结合广东省某市实际及中长期发展规划,运用Kaya模型和情景分析法,对该市碳达峰时间、峰值进行预测和情景分析。研究结果表明,该市碳排放量在强化低碳情景下将在2025年达到峰值。

According to the national vision that carbon emissions will peak before 2030 and strive to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060,combined with the actual and medium-and long-term development planning of a city in Guangdong Province,Kaya model and scenario analysis method are used to predict and analyze the peak carbon dioxide emissions time and peak value of the city.The research results show that the city's carbon emissions will reach the peak in 2025 under the scenario of strengthening low carbon.