基于组合预测法的云南省生鲜农产品冷链物流需求预测

Prediction of Cold Chain Logistics Demand for Fresh Agricultural Products In Yunnan Province based on Combination Prediction Method

冷链物流需求预测是区域冷链物流基础设施规划的基础工作,建立合适的预测模型,较为准确地预测生鲜农产品冷链物流需求量具有重要的现实意义。该文章在单一预测模型的基础上,通过熵值法赋予灰色预测GM(1,1)、时间序列ARIMA法和二次平滑指数法三种单一预测模型权重建立组合预测模型,利用云南省2009—2020年六类生鲜农产品生产量数据对2021—2030年相关物流量进行预测,预测结果表明组合预测法的预测精度要优于三种单一预测方法。该研究选用组合预测模型预测云南省冷链物流需求量,结果显示云南省生鲜农产品冷链物流需求保持一定幅度的线性增长趋势,年均增长率将达到2.94%。通过冷链物流基础设施对比得到云南省冷链物流基础设施和其他省份存在较大差距,难以满足生鲜农产品冷链物流需求日益增长的速度。本文从云南省政府、企业和农民的角度,提出加速云南省冷链物流发展的对策建议。

Cold chain logistics demand prediction is the basic work of regional cold chain logistics infrastructure planning.Establishing a suitable prediction model to accurately predict the cold chain logistics demand of fresh agricultural products has important practical significance.On the basis of a single prediction model,this article establishes a combined prediction model by assigning weights to three single prediction models:grey prediction GM(1,1),time series ARIMA method,and quadratic smoothing index method using entropy method.Using the production data of six types of fresh agricultural products in Yunnan Province from 2009 to 2020,the article predicts the relevant logistics volume from 2021 to 2030.The prediction results show that the combined prediction method has better prediction accuracy than the three single prediction methods.This study used a combination prediction model to predict the demand for cold chain logistics in Yunnan Province.The results showed that the demand for cold chain logistics of fresh agricultural products in Yunnan Province maintained a certain linear growth trend,with an average annual growth rate of 2.94%.Through the comparison of cold chain logistics infrastructure,it is found that there is a significant gap between Yunnan Province's cold chain logistics infrastructure and other provinces,making it difficult to meet the growing demand for cold chain logistics of fresh agricultural products.This article proposes countermeasures and suggestions to accelerate the development of cold chain logistics in Yunnan Province from the perspectives of the government,enterprises,and farmers.