中国经济转型成效的时空演变及收敛趋势研究

Temporal and Spatial Evolution and Convergence Trend Study of China’s Economic Transformation Effectiveness

本文从经济、民生、生态和产业结构四个层面构建指标体系测算2003—2021年中国31个省(区、市)的经济转型成效,基于Dagum基尼系数、核密度估计、马尔科夫链、ESDA法和空间收敛模型探讨了中国经济转型成效的时空演变特征和收敛趋势。得出结论:(1)中国经济转型成效整体呈上升趋势,但全国经济转型成效差异逐渐扩大,差异主要源自地区间差异;(2)省际的经济转型成效具有空间正相关性,并且各省份经济转型成效保持原状态的概率最高,向高水平转移的概率次之,向低水平转移的概率最低,但其难以实现跨越式转移,同时空间因素会对转移过程产生影响;(3)全国、东部、中部和西部地区经济转型均存在绝对与条件β收敛,且条件β收敛速度更快,以及空间因素对收敛有明显的加速作用。基于此,从统筹区域经济协调发展,充分发挥经济转型成效较高区域的空间联动性,高度重视宏观因素对经济转型的影响效应等方面提出对策建议。

This research constructs an indicator system to measure the effectiveness of economic transformation of 31 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)in China from 2003 to 2021 in four dimensions:economy,livelihood,ecology and industrial structure.Based on the Dagum’s Gini coefficient,the kernel density estimation,the Markov chain,the ESDA method,and the spatial convergence model,this research discuss the spatial and temporal evolution and convergence trend of the effectiveness of China’s economic transformation.The results show that:(1)The effectiveness of China’s economic transformation are on the rise,but the differences in the effectiveness of economic transformation across the country are gradually widening,which mainly due to the regional differences.(2)There is a positive spatial correlation between the effectiveness of economic transformation between provinces,and the probability that the effectiveness of economic transformation in each province will remain in its original state is the highest,the probability of shifting to a high level is the second highest,and the probability of shifting to a low level is the lowest,but it is difficult to achieve leapfrogging,and at the same time,spatial factors will have an impact on the shifting process.(3)There are absolute and conditionalβconvergence in the economic transformation in China,eastern,central and western regions,and the conditionalβconvergence is much faster,as well as the spatial factors have a significant accelerating effect on the convergence.Based on this,countermeasures are proposed in terms of co-ordinating the coordinated development of regional economies,giving full play to the spatial linkages of regions with more effective economic transformation,and attaching great importance to the effects of macro-factors on economic transformation.