中国城市群现代化发展的理论逻辑、时空特征与动态演进

Theoretical Logic,Spatial and Temporal Characteristics and Dynamic Evolution of Chinese Modernization of Urban Agglomerations

中国式现代化为城市群发展提出了新的要求,这对建设具有中国特色的城市群、推进新型城镇化战略具有重要意义。基于中国式现代化的五大特征,本文探究了城市群现代化发展的理论逻辑,在此基础上构建了城市群现代化评价指标体系并进行实证测度,深入分析了其时空特征、区域差异、动态演进和稳态。研究发现:(1)中国城市群现代化总体水平呈现持续增长态势,城市群现代化水平空间分布的“东中西”梯度格局有所减弱,但“南高北低”的空间格局进一步明显。(2)城市群现代化总体及区域内部差异逐渐缩小,城市群间差异依然显著。(3)城市群现代化存在明显的“俱乐部收敛”现象,邻域现代化水平越高的城市群现代化向上转移的概率越高,且具有长期向高值区域集聚的趋势。基于此,本文从发达城市群引领、中西部城市群崛起以及协同城市群间发展的角度提出了中国城市群现代化水平提升的实现路径。

Chinese modernization puts forward new requirements for the development of urban agglomerations,which is of great significance to the construction of urban agglomerations with Chinese characteristics and the realization of the new urbanization strategy.Based on the five characteristics of Chinese modernization,the theoretical logic of the modernization development of urban agglomerations is explored,based on which the evaluation system of urban agglomeration modernization indicators is constructed and empirically measured,and the spatial and temporal characteristics,regional differences,dynamic evolution,and steady-state are analyzed in depth.The study found that:(1)The overall level of modernization of Chinese urban agglomerations has shown continuous growth,and the gradient pattern of the spatial distribution of modernization of urban agglomerations in the East,Central,and West has weakened,but the spatial pattern of“high in the South,low in the North”has become more obvious.(2)The overall and intra-regional differences in the modernization of urban agglomerations have gradually narrowed,while the differences between urban agglomerations are still significant.(3)There is an obvious Club Convergence phenomenon in the modernization of urban agglomerations,which means the higher the modernization level of neighbouring regions,the higher the probability of upward transfer of the modernization of urban agglomerations,and there is a long-term trend of agglomeration to high-value regions.Based on this,this research proposes the realization path of China’s urban agglomeration modernization from the perspectives of developed urban agglomerations leading,the central and western urban agglomerations rising,and synergistic inter-urban agglomeration development.