数字贸易改革、空间溢出与城市经济韧性——基于跨境电商综合试验区的准自然实验

Digital Trade Reform,Spatial Spillovers,and Urban Economic Resilience——A Quasi-natural Experiment Based on Cross-border E-commerce Comprehensive Pilot Zone

本文以跨境电商综合试验区试点政策为准自然实验,基于2010—2021年中国287个地级及以上城市的面板数据,构建多时点DID和空间DID模型,深入探讨数字贸易改革对城市经济韧性的影响效应及作用机理。研究结果表明:(1)数字贸易改革能够明显提升城市经济韧性,该结论在平行趋势检验、安慰剂检验、PSM-DID检验等稳健性检验后依然成立;(2)异质性分析表明,数字贸易改革对城市经济韧性的影响具有地理区位异质性和发展等级异质性特征,对中部城市经济韧性的影响大于东部和西部城市,对二线及以下城市经济韧性影响显著性高于一线及新一线城市;(3)空间溢出性分析表明,数字贸易改革对城市经济韧性具有显著的正向空间溢出效应,可以有效促进邻近城市的经济韧性实现协同提升。基于以上结论,本文提出了相应的对策建议。

This article takes the pilot policy of cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zones as a quasi-natural experiment,and based on panel data from 287 prefecture level and above cities in China from 2010 to 2021,constructs DID with multiple time model and spatial DID models to deeply explore the impact effect and mechanism of digital trade reform on urban economic resilience.The research results indicate that:(1)The digital trade reform can significantly enhance the resilience of the urban economy,and this conclusion still holds after robustness tests such as parallel trend test,placebo test,and PSMDID test.(2)The heterogeneity analysis shows that the impact of digital trade reform on urban economic resilience is characterized by geographical location heterogeneity and development level heterogeneity.The impact on the economic resilience of central cities is greater than that of eastern and western cities,and the impact on the economic resilience of second tier and below cities is significantly higher than that of first tier and new first tier cities.(3)The spatial spillover analysis shows that digital trade reform has a significant positive spatial spillover effect on urban economic resilience,which can effectively promote the synergistic improvement of economic resilience in neighboring cities.Based on the above conclusions,this article proposes corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.