基于蒙特卡罗方法的煤矿爆破作业风险评估

Risk assessment of coal mine blasting operations based on Monte Carlo method

为量化分析煤矿爆破作业各作业步骤造成的风险以及全面客观地对其进行风险评估,借助蒙特卡罗方法建立煤矿爆破作业步骤风险评估模型,对作业流程的行为风险后果值进行累积概率分布,最终依据蒙特卡罗方法模拟的均值结果和作业流程总体风险结果判定各作业步骤的风险大小和风险等级,并提出控制此类不安全行为发生的措施。结果表明:爆破作业流程风险大小顺序依次为清退物品入库、装药、连线、警戒、起爆后安全检查、领取并检查爆破物品、起爆、运送爆破物品、接受爆破任务、作业前安全检查、起爆前安全检查、封孔。

In order to quantitatively analyze the risk caused by each operational step of coal mine blasting and comprehensively and objectively assess its risk,with the help of Monte Carlo method,this paper establishes a risk assessment model of coal mine blasting operation steps,makes cumulative probability distribution of the behavioral risk consequence value of the operation process,and finally determines the risk size and risk level of each operation step based on the mean result of Monte Carlo simulation and the overall risk result of the operation process,and puts forward the measures for the control of the occurrence of such unsafe behaviors.The results of the study show that the order of risk of the blasting operation process is in the following order:clearing the items into the warehouse,loading,linkage,guarding,safety inspection after detonation,receiving and checking the blasting items,detonation,delivery of blasting items,acceptance of the task of blasting,preoperational safety inspection,pre-detonation safety inspection,sealing the holes.