数字普惠金融对乡村振兴的影响研究——基于产业多样性的调节效应分析

Research on the Impact of Digital Inclusive Finance on Rural Revitalization——An Analysis of the Moderating Effect Based on Industrial Diversity

本文基于2011—2020年我国(西藏、港澳台地区除外)30个省级面板数据构建了乡村振兴综合评价指标体系,并引入固定效应模型、调节效应模型和空间Durbin模型探讨了数字普惠金融对乡村振兴的影响。研究发现:第一,数字普惠金融及其子维度对乡村振兴均具有显著的正向影响,产业多样性在二者间起着正向调节作用;而传统金融机构的数字化发展对于乡村振兴的促进作用不明显。第二,乡村振兴在省级区际之间具有较强的空间溢出效应,且存在非均衡发展特征,但近年非均衡发展问题整体有所缓解。第三,数字普惠金融对本地乡村振兴发展整体呈先正后负的倒“U”型影响,对周边地区则呈先减后增的“U”型影响。综上,本文提出如下建议:加快完善较偏远地区数字金融基础设施建设,塑造数字乡村发展理念;积极推动和引导传统金融机构的数字化转型发展;促进三个产业融合,拓展农民就业渠道,形成具有区域产业多样性特征的产业结构;缩小数字普惠金融在区域间的发展差距,促进我国乡村振兴全面协调发展。

Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China(except Xizang,Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)from 2011 to 2020,this paper constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system of rural revitalization,and introduces the fixed effect model,moderating effect model and spatial Durbin model to explore the impact of digital inclusive finance on rural revitalization.The findings are as follows:first,digital inclusive finance and its sub-dimensions have a significant positive impact on rural revitalization,and industrial diversity plays a positive moderating role between the two;However,the digital development of traditional financial institutions does not play an obvious role in promoting rural revitalization.Second,rural revitalization has a strong spatial spillover effect among provincial regions,and there is a characteristic of unbalanced development,but the unbalanced development problem has been alleviated in recent years.Third,digital inclusive finance has an inverted U-shaped impact on the local rural revitalization and development,which is positive at first and then negative,and a U-shaped impact on the surrounding areas,initially decreasing and then increasing.To sum up,this paper puts forward the following suggestions:accelerate the improvement of digital financial infrastructure construction in remote areas,shape the concept of digital rural development;actively promote and guide the digital transformation and development of traditional financial institutions;promote the integration of the three industries,expand farmers'employment channels,and form an industrial structure characterized by regional industrial diversity;narrow the development gap of digital inclusive finance among regions and promote the comprehensive and coordinated development of rural revitalization in China.