2015-2021年鄱阳湖流域主要城市PM_(2.5)和O_(3)浓度分布特征及疾病负担评估

PM_(2.5) and O_(3) Concentration Distribution Characteristics and Disease Burden Assessment in Major Cities of Poyang Lake Basin from 2015 to 2021

为研究鄱阳湖流域主要城市(南昌市、九江市和上饶市)PM_(2.5)和O_(3)污染对健康的影响,本文评估了“十四五”期间实现特定浓度目标可能带来的健康效益,分析了2015-2021年各污染物的浓度变化,并运用健康影响函数(HIF)及综合暴露-反应函数(IER)对这些城市的疾病负担进行了评估.结果表明:①2015-2021年,南昌市、九江市和上饶市的PM_(2.5)年均浓度分别下降了28.57%、32.65%和34.88%,而O_(3)浓度分别上升了11.53%、8.75%和7.06%;此外,PM_(2.5)和O_(3)浓度分布呈现出明显的季节性变化.鄱阳湖流域主要城市与PM_(2.5)相关的疾病负担下降了18.42%,而与O_(3)相关的疾病负担增加了81.11%.②预测显示,“十四五”期间若实现积极目标,南昌市、九江市和上饶市的PM_(2.5)疾病负担将分别减少55.45%、59.51%和51.44%,在一般目标下将分别减少31.76%、36.43%和33.80%;O_(3)方面,预期目标实现后南昌市、九江市和上饶市的疾病负担将分别下降50.92%、40.58%和36.80%.研究显示,相较于O_(3)浓度控制目标,更为严格的PM_(2.5)浓度控制目标能够产生更显著的健康效益.

To investigate the health impacts of PM_(2.5) and O_(3) pollution in major cities in the Poyang Lake Basin(Nanchang,Jiujiang and Shangrao),this study evaluates the potential health benefits of achieving specific air quality targets during the‘14th Five-Year Plan’period.We analyzed the changes in pollutant concentrations from 2015 to 2021 and assessed the disease burden in these cities using Health Impact Function(HIF)and Integrated Exposure-Response Function(IER).The results show that:(1)From 2015 to 2021,the average annual PM_(2.5) concentrations in Nanchang,Jiujiang and Shangrao decreased by 28.57%,32.65%and 34.88%,respectively,and the O_(3) concentrations increased by 11.53%,8.75%and 7.06%,respectively.There were significant seasonal changes in PM_(2.5) and O_(3) concentrations.The PM_(2.5) disease burden in major cities in the Poyang Lake Basin decreased by 18.42%,and the O_(3) disease burden increased by 81.11%.(2)Health benefit forecasts during the‘14th Five-Year Plan’period show that if aggressive air quality targets are achieved,the burden of PM_(2.5) related diseases in Nanchang,Jiujiang and Shangrao can be reduced by 55.45%,59.51%and 51.44%,respectively.If the targets are relatively moderate,the expected reductions are 31.76%,36.43%and 33.80%,respectively.In the case of O_(3),achieving the expected targets can reduce the disease burden in the three cities by 50.92%,40.58%and 36.80%,respectively.The results of the study show that stricter PM_(2.5) concentration control targets can produce more significant health benefits than O_(3) concentration control targets.