农村数字化发展对农业全要素碳生产率的提升效应

Enhancement effect of rural digital development on agricultural total factor carbon productivity

为应对全球气候变化,数字化转型的绿色效益受到关注。农业作为国民经济的基础,亦是第二大温室气体排放源,如何借助数字化同时实现农业降碳和增产是中国实现“双碳”目标的关键问题。基于2011—2020年中国30省份面板数据,遵循“发展基础-发展动力-发展结果”的逻辑构建农村数字化综合指标,运用EBM-GML方法准确量化农业全要素碳生产率(ATFCP),采用历史农村公路密度和上一年农村互联网用户数作为工具变量,研究农村数字化和ATFCP之间的因果关系。研究发现:①农村数字化能够提升ATFCP,经过一系列稳健性检验和内生处理,这一结论仍然成立。②农村数字化通过促进技术创新、规模经营、结构升级、产业集聚和非农就业,进而实现对ATFCP的提升。③异质性分析结果表明,农村数字化对ATFCP的正向影响表现为边际递减,在绿色发展水平较高或较低地区均能发挥显著提升作用。此外,农村数字化存在金融门槛,在农村金融发展水平较高地区的提升作用更强,这是制约农村数字化促进ATFCP提升的主要原因。④空间计量分析结果表明,农村数字化和ATFCP之间存在显著的空间效应,短期和长期的间接影响均显著为正,农村数字化不仅能够提升本地的ATFCP,还能通过技术扩散正向影响邻近地区的ATFCP。基于此,要进一步强化农村数字化降碳增产的红利效应,通过加大资金投入,完善数字基础设施建设,推动要素流动和技术落地,提升农村数字化发展潜力;要实施动态化和差异化数字乡村发展战略,完善区域间合作机制,促进各地区之间数字经济的协调发展。

In response to global climate change,the green benefits of digital transformation are attracting attention.As agriculture is the basis of the national economy and the second largest source of greenhouse gas emissions,how to simultaneously reduce carbon emis-sions and increase production in agriculture by means of digitalization is a key issue for China to achieve the‘dual carbon’goals.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2020,this study constructed a comprehensive index of rural digitaliza-tion following the logic of‘development foundation,development dynamics,and development results,’and applied the EBM-GML method to accurately quantify the agricultural total factor carbon productivity(ATFCP).The study found that:①Rural digitalization could increase ATFCP,and this finding still held after a series of robustness tests and endogeneity treatments.②Rural digitalization promoted technological innovation,scale operation,structural upgrading,industrial agglomeration,and non-farm employment,which in turn had an enhancing effect on ATFCP.③The results of the heterogeneity analysis demonstrated that the positive effect of rural digita-lization on ATFCP showed a marginal decreasing effect,which could play a significant enhancing role in both high and low-green devel-opment level areas.In addition,the existence of a financial threshold for rural digitalization,which had a stronger effect in areas with high rural financial development levels,was a main constraint to digitalization in the process of promoting ATFCP.④Spatial economet-ric analysis showed that there was a significant spatial effect between rural digitalization and ATFCP,and the long-term and short-term indirect effects were significantly positive,indicating that rural digitalization not only enhanced local ATFCP,but also positively affect-ed ATFCP in neighboring areas through technology diffusion.Based on this,we should further strengthen the dividend effect of rural digitalization by reducing carbon emissions and increasing production.We should also promote factor flow and technological applica-tion and enhance the development potential of rural digitalization by increasing financial investment and improving digital infrastruc-ture construction.At the same time,we should implement dynamic and differentiated digital rural development strategies,improve re-gional cooperation mechanisms,and promote the coordinated development of the digital economy in various regions.