环境规制、数字赋能对产业结构升级的影响及机理

Impact and mechanisms of environmental regulation and digital empowerment on industrial structure upgrading

当前中国经济转型的重要路径为“绿色优先,数字赋能”。为探究绿色化与数字化在产业层面能否实现协同发展,该研究利用全国283个地级市的面板数据,验证数字经济在产业结构绿色转型过程中发挥的调节效应。首先使用多重门槛检验来寻找环境规制与产业结构调整之间的非线性关系,在利用高阶函数进行拟合的基础上,加入产业数字化与数字产业化两大调节变量剖析环境规制和数字赋能的协同作用。研究结果表明:①环境规制对于产业结构合理化不存在明显影响,但对产业结构高级化存在单门槛效应,即当环境规制力度越过门槛值后能够实现环境改善与产业结构升级共赢。②产业数字化与环境规制并行使得产业结构合理化出现了双门槛效应,随着两者融合程度加深,可通过逐步减轻环境规制力度来实现协同发展;但产业数字化与环境规制并行使得产业结构高级化的单门槛效应消失,交互项系数显著为正但并不稳定。③数字产业化与环境规制并行对于产业结构合理化不存在显著影响,但对于产业结构高级化产生了单门槛效应,且随着两者融合程度加深,生态与产业协同发展的强度区间会逐渐扩大。④从局部地区的异质性回归结果来看,主要结论仍然可以得到验证,但发现经济发达片区存在向欠发达片区进行污染转移的现象。据此,该研究提出,顶层设计过程中应考虑地方环境治理的短视行为及各区域产业层次的客观差异,引导发达地区政府更加关注绿色技术创新的长期驱动力,促进“绿色共识”与发展目标深度融合。

At present,prioritizing green development and promoting digital empowerment have become key paths in China's economic transformation.To explore whether‘green development’and‘digitalization’can achieve synergistic development at the industrial lev-el,this paper used the panel data of 283 prefecture-level cities in China to innovatively verify the regulatory effect of the digital econo-my in the process of green transformation of the industrial structure.Firstly,the multiple threshold test was used to find the nonlinear re-lationship between environmental regulation and industrial structure adjustment.Based on the fitting of a high-order function,two ad-justment variables—industrial digitalization and digital industrialization—were added to analyze the synergy between environmental regulation and digital empowerment.The results showed that:①Environmental regulation had no significant impact on the rationaliza-tion of industrial structure but had a single threshold effect on the upgrading of industrial structure;that is,when the intensity of envi-ronmental regulation exceeded the threshold value,environmental improvement and industrial structure upgrading could achieve a win�win situation.②The joint operation of industrial digitalization and environmental regulation led to a dual threshold effect in the ratio-nalization of industrial structure.As the integration of the two deepened,synergistic development could be achieved by gradually reduc-ing the intensity of environmental regulation.However,the joint operation of industrial digitalization and environmental regulation led to the disappearance of the single threshold effect of industrial structure upgrading,and the interaction coefficient was significantly posi-tive but not stable.③The joint operation of digital industrialization and environmental regulation did not have a significant impact on the rationalization of industrial structure but had a single threshold effect on the advancement of industrial structure.As the integration of the two deepened,the intensity range of ecological and industrial synergistic development would gradually expand.From the hetero-geneity regression results of local regions,the main conclusion could still be verified,but it was found that there was a phenomenon of pollution transfer from economically developed areas to underdeveloped areas.Based on the above conclusions,this study proposes that shortsighted behaviors of local environmental governance and the objective differences in the industrial levels of each region should be considered in the top-level design process.We should also guide the governments in the developed areas to pay more attention to the long-term driving force of green technology innovation and promote the deep integration of‘green consensus’and development goals.