中国主粮种植面积变化的影响因素——基于荟萃分析

On factors influencing the acreage of staple crops in China:Evidence from a meta-analysis

粮食种植面积变动已成为中国粮食生产的基础性问题,对粮食供给具有重要影响。为探究主粮种植面积变化的根源,运用荟萃分析法对中国主粮种植面积变化的影响因素进行统计与分析。研究表明,农户受教育程度、农业劳动力、机械化水平、粮食补贴政策与粮食收储政策等因素对主粮种植面积具有显著且稳健的促进作用,农户年龄、城乡收入差距等因素则具有显著抑制作用;伴随时间推移,部分影响因素对主粮种植面积的影响效应会发生变化,而文献研究特征的不同也可能会导致最终实证结果的差异。因此,建议政府部门在鼓励扩大主粮种植面积时,应适当关注上述变量的影响,提升决策的合理性和精准性,同时在后续关于该领域的相关研究中,也应进一步改进现有方法和设计,从而提升研究的科学性。

The change of grain planting area has become a basic problem in Chinese grain production and has an important influence on Chinese grain supply.Many scholars have conducted empirical studies on the influencing factors of planting area of main grains.In order to comprehensively analyze the existing research results and explore the root cause of the change of planting area of main grains,this paper uses meta-analysis method to study the influencing factors of planting area change of main grains.The results show that factors such as farmer's education level,agricultural labor force,mechanization level,grain subsidy policy and grain purchase and storage policy have a significant and stable promoting effect on the planting area of main grains while factors such as farmer's age and urban-rural income gap a significant inhibiting effect.In addition,the effects of some influencing factors on the planting area of main grains will change with the passage of time,and the different characteristics of literature researches may also lead to differences in the final empirical results.Therefore,government departments should currently pay attention to the influence of afforementioned variables when expanding planting area of main grains so as to improve the scientific and accurate decision-making.Meanwhile,the follow-up relevant studies in this field should also further improve existing research methods and design.