林草生态系统固碳增汇的增长潜力及交易机制

Growth potential of carbon sequestration and carbon sinks increase in forest and grass ecosystem in China

巩固提升林草生态系统碳汇能力,是实现碳达峰、碳中和的重要行动。分析了中国林草生态系统碳储量现状和核算方法,运用固碳速率法对林草生态系统固碳能力进行计算,并采用灰色模型进行预测,研究结果表明,中国林草生态系统年固碳量和总面积呈现逐年增加趋势,合理增加森林和草原面积有利于提高林草资源固碳量,预计到2030年中国林草生态系统固碳量将增加至8.549亿t,总面积将增加至6.467亿hm^(2)。结合中国林草碳汇交易市场发展现状和制约瓶颈,提出了合理规划林草面积、完善碳汇支持体系、加快建设碳汇交易市场、完善碳汇法律法制建设4个方面建议。

This paper analyzes the current situation and accounting method of carbon reserves of the forest and grass ecosystem in China,and uses carbon fixation rate method to calculate the carbon sequestration capacity and gray prediction model of the forest and grass ecosystem.The results show that the annual carbon sequestration and total area of forest and grass ecosystem in China are increasing year by year,and the reasonable increase of forest and grassland area is conducive to increasing the carbon sequestration of forest and grass resources.It is expected that the carbon sequestration of China's forest and grass ecosystem will increase to 854.9 million tons by 2030 and the total area will increase to 646.7 million hectares.Then combined with China carbon sink market development status and the bottleneck,recommendations are presented in terms of reasonable planning forest area,carbon sink support system,construction of carbon sink market,and carbon sink law construction,in order to provide reference for China carbon sink accounting and carbon sink trading market development.