随机与蓄意攻击下长三角城市知识网络稳健性特征及其对创新绩效的影响

Robustness of knowledge networks in the Yangtze River Delta and their impact on innovation performance under random and targeted attacks

新发展格局下,提升长三角城市知识网络稳健性成为积极应对全球科技合作中“逆全球化”挑战,推动高质量一体化发展的有效途径。本研究基于2017—2021年长三角41个城市的授权发明专利数据,以4位数技术类为节点,以技术组合频率为链接,构建城市内部知识网络。通过模拟随机与蓄意攻击情景,计算网络崩溃阈值来评估长三角城市知识网络的稳健性,并采用面板计量模型探讨其对城市创新绩效的影响。研究发现:(1)长三角城市知识网络对随机攻击的抵御能力明显强于蓄意攻击。(2)长三角城市知识网络稳健性整体呈现东高西低的格局,受新冠疫情影响,出现先上升后下降态势。蓄意攻击下杭州、上海、南京、宁波知识网络稳健性排名稳居前4位,池州排名最后。(3)随机与蓄意攻击下长三角整体知识网络稳健性均高于单个城市知识网络稳健性,提高技术的跨城市、跨部门组合机会可以增强知识网络风险抵御能力。5年间长三角跨部类技术融合比例由41%上升至47%。(4)在控制知识相关多样化和非相关多样化、合作网络中心性后,回归分析结果表明城市知识网络稳健性与创新绩效呈正相关关系,且相比于随机攻击,蓄意攻击下知识网络稳健性能力对创新绩效的影响更大。将网络崩溃阈值替换为网络效能比进行稳健性检验,回归结果依然显著。最后,建议集合科技创新力量于核心技术领域,包括分离技术、电数字数据处理、测试或分析材料、清洁技术、高分子化合物等5个在知识网络中占据核心位置的技术领域,并加强城市间技术互补以提高长三角城市知识网络稳健性。

In the new development paradigm,enhancing the robustness of the urban knowledge network in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)is increasingly recognized as an effective strategy to address the challenges of"anti-globalization"in global technological cooperation and to promote high-quality integrated development.This study is based on the authorized invention patent data from 2017 to 2021 for 41 cities in the YRD.It constructs intra-city knowledge networks using four-digit technology categories as nodes and the frequency of technology combinations as connections.The study evaluates the robustness of knowledge networks by simulating both random and deliberate attacks and calculating the network collapse threshold.A panel econometric model is employed to explore the impact on city innovation performance.The findings reveal that:(1)The knowledge networks in YRD cities exhibit stronger resilience to random attacks compared to deliberate attacks.(2)The overall robustness of these networks shows a pattern of high in the east and low in the west,influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic,with an initial rise followed by a decline.Under deliberate attacks,Hangzhou,Shanghai,Nanjing,and Ningbo consistently rank in the top four in network robustness,while Chizhou ranks last.(3)The overall robustness of the YRD knowledge network,under both random and deliberate attacks,surpasses that of individual cities'networks.Enhancing cross-city and cross-sector technology integration opportunities increases the network's ability to resist risks.Over five years,the rate of cross-sector technology integration in the YRD increased from 41%to 47%.(4)After controlling for related and unrelated variety of knowledge,and network centrality in cooperative networks,regression analysis shows a positive correlation between the robustness of city knowledge networks and innovation performance.The impact of knowledge network robustness on innovation is more significant during deliberate attacks compared to random attacks.Even when substituting the network collapse threshold with network efficiency ratio for robustness testing,the regression results remain significant.Finally,the study recommends consolidating technological innovation efforts in core technology areas,including separation technology,digital data processing,material testing or analysis,clean technology,and polymer compounds-five fields that hold central positions in knowledge networks.Strengthening inter-city technological complementarity is also advised to enhance the robustness of the knowledge network in YRD cities.