2000—2020年中国农业空间演变特征、区域差异及其影响因素

Characteristics, regional differences, and influencing factors of agricultural spatial evolution in China from 2000 to 2020

整合各类涉农用地为农业空间,科学认知全国农业空间时空格局演变过程及新趋势,是国土空间规划背景下开展农业空间规划的基础性工作。以农业可持续发展分区和主体功能区为空间参照,运用空间转移矩阵、Dagum空间基尼系数和空间计量回归模型解析2000—2020年中国农业空间演变特征及区域差异,并识别关键影响因子及作用效应的空间分异。结果表明:(1)近20年中国农业生产空间持续缩减的同时农业生活空间稳定扩张,农业空间整体沿胡焕庸线“西增东减”的分异格局凸显,第二级地势阶梯是农业空间结构转型的密集热点区,西北干旱区、青藏高原寒区和东北寒区剧烈的农业扩张正在逐渐改变全国农业空间格局。(2)农业空间布局的区域不均衡性进一步扩大,演变过程的主体功能区“内/间”差异显著,城市化地区-非城市化地区间的差异是全国差异产生的主要来源,农业空间在非农产品主产区中的演化态势严峻,西北生态保护与农业开发、东南城镇发展与农业保护间的矛盾突出。(3)农业空间结构转型是自然地理、交通区位和社会经济因素协同作用下的复杂结果,各因素作用的空间异质性尺度差异明显,全国农业空间格局由多个不同尺度的空间过程共同形成。未来中国农业发展战略及相关农业空间规划的编制需要注重空间演化过程及规律,也需要利用农业空间演变新趋势谋求更大的空间综合效益。

The integration of various agricultural land types into a unified agricultural space,coupled with a scientific understanding of the spatial and temporal evolution of agricultural spaces nationwide,forms the cornerstone of agricultural spatial planning under the territorial spatial planning framework.This study anchors its analysis in the agricultural sustainable development zones and the Major Function-oriented Zones,employing spatial transition matrices,Dagum spatial Gini coefficients,and spatial econometric regression models.The period 2000-2020 serves as the temporal scope for dissecting the characteristics and regional differences of China's agricultural space evolution,and identifying the key influencing factors and their spatial variances in effects.The findings are as follows:(1)Over the past two decades,while the agricultural production space in China continually decreased,the agricultural living space expanded steadily.The distinct differentiation pattern of"westward increase,eastward decrease"along the Hu Huanyong Line has become prominent.The secondary topographical step is a dense hotspot for the transformation of agricultural spatial structure.The rapid agricultural expansion in the arid regions of Northwest China,the frigid areas of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,and the cold regions of Northeast China is gradually reshaping the national agricultural spatial pattern.(2)The regional imbalance of agricultural spatial layout has further escalated,with pronounced"intra/inter"disparities within the Major Function-oriented Zones during the evolution process.The disparities between urbanized and non-urbanized regions are the main source of nationwide differences.The evolution situation of agricultural space in non-agricultural product primary production areas is severe,accentuating conflicts between ecological conservation and agricultural development in the Northwest,as well as urban development and agricultural protection in the Southeast.(3)The transformation of agricultural spatial structure is a complex result of synergies among natural conditions,transportation location,and socio-economic factors.The spatial heterogeneity of the effects of various factors at different scales is evident,and the national agricultural spatial pattern is shaped by multiple spatial processes at different scales.Future strategies for Chinese agricultural development and the formulation of relevant agricultural spatial planning need to focus on the processes and laws of spatial evolution,while striving for more comprehensive spatial benefits through an understanding of emerging trends in agricultural spatial evolution.