债务—美元国际货币霸权体系的支柱及优势——基于存量—流量一致模型分析

The Pillars and Advantages of the Debt-US Dollar International Monetary Hegemony System:An Analysis Based on the Stock-flow Consistent Model

本文基于马克思政治经济学的货币金融思想和后凯恩斯货币经济学存量—流量一致模型(SFC)分析方法,考察债务—美元国际货币体系的本质,梳理了支撑其霸权地位的六个主要支柱,阐述了影响其主要支柱变化的因素与机制;考察了其霸权性质的具体表现,即美国国债国际实际利息支付下降与美国国际投资头寸中资产端相对负债端的超额收益率现象。进一步测算出美国从2006年一季度至2022年四季度,超额收益率在国际收支总头寸平均值为0.397%,直接投资头寸平均值为0.999%。当前,美国实体经济弱化、美元和美国国债国际使用度下降等关键因素的变化使得债务—美元体系的国际货币霸权地位发生动摇。未来我国应该持续推进人民币国际化,提升我国在国际货币和金融体系中的话语权。

Based on the monetary and financial ideas in Marxist political economy and the stock-flow consistent model(SFC) analysis in post-Keynesian monetary economics, this paper examines the nature of the international monetary system of debt-US dollar. It outlines the six main pillars that support its hegemonic position and discusses the factors and mechanisms that influence the changes in these pillars.The paper also investigates the specific manifestations of its hegemonic nature, that is, the decline in actual international interest payments on US government debt and the phenomenon of “excess returns” on assets relative to liabilities in the US international investment position. Further calculations reveal that from the first quarter of 2006 to the fourth quarter of 2022, the average excess return rate was 0.397% for the overall international balance of payments position and 0.999% for direct investment positions.At present, key factors such as the weakening of the US real economy and a decline in the international usage of the US dollar and US government debt are causing instability in the international monetary hegemony of the debt-US dollar system.In response, China should continue to advance the internationalization of the RMB and increase its influence within the international monetary and financial system.