摘要
本文基于马克思政治经济学的货币金融思想和后凯恩斯货币经济学存量—流量一致模型(SFC)分析方法,考察债务—美元国际货币体系的本质,梳理了支撑其霸权地位的六个主要支柱,阐述了影响其主要支柱变化的因素与机制;考察了其霸权性质的具体表现,即美国国债国际实际利息支付下降与美国国际投资头寸中资产端相对负债端的超额收益率现象。进一步测算出美国从2006年一季度至2022年四季度,超额收益率在国际收支总头寸平均值为0.397%,直接投资头寸平均值为0.999%。当前,美国实体经济弱化、美元和美国国债国际使用度下降等关键因素的变化使得债务—美元体系的国际货币霸权地位发生动摇。未来我国应该持续推进人民币国际化,提升我国在国际货币和金融体系中的话语权。
Based on the monetary and financial ideas in Marxist political economy and the stock-flow consistent model(SFC) analysis in post-Keynesian monetary economics, this paper examines the nature of the international monetary system of debt-US dollar. It outlines the six main pillars that support its hegemonic position and discusses the factors and mechanisms that influence the changes in these pillars.The paper also investigates the specific manifestations of its hegemonic nature, that is, the decline in actual international interest payments on US government debt and the phenomenon of “excess returns” on assets relative to liabilities in the US international investment position. Further calculations reveal that from the first quarter of 2006 to the fourth quarter of 2022, the average excess return rate was 0.397% for the overall international balance of payments position and 0.999% for direct investment positions.At present, key factors such as the weakening of the US real economy and a decline in the international usage of the US dollar and US government debt are causing instability in the international monetary hegemony of the debt-US dollar system.In response, China should continue to advance the internationalization of the RMB and increase its influence within the international monetary and financial system.
作者
李宝伟
孙尧
张云
胡秋阳
Li Baowei;Sun Yao;Zhang Yun;Hu Qiuyang(Department of Economics of School of Economics,Nankai University;School of Economics,Nankai University)
出处
《政治经济学评论》
北大核心
2024年第2期170-194,共25页
China Review of Political Economy
基金
国家自然科学基金面上顶目“资金关联、资金供求与资金配置:宏观资金流视角的应用一般均衡模型构建及政策分析”(项目号:71874090)
教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“资金供求的一般均衡分析框架、模型及在中国经济中的应用”(项目号:18YJA790034)
中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目“建设现代化经济体系、着力实体经济与宏观资金流转配置研究”(项目号:63182009)
南开大学文科发展基金青年项目“法定数字货币的宏观经济效应研究”(项目号:ZB22BZ0317)。
关键词
美元货币金融优势
国际投资头寸
存流量一致模型
the financial advantages of US dollar
international investment position
stock-flow consistent model