金融危机、管理者过度自信与企业风险承担的关系研究

A Study on the Relationship Between Financial Crisis,Overconfidence of CEOs,and Enterprise Risk Taking

行为金融学研究发现在不确定条件下,管理者过度自信是增加企业受到风险冲击的重要非理性因素。金融危机作为企业面临的最大的不确定困境之一,管理者在此条件下的过度自信与企业风险承担之间的关系研究,对企业股价波动及风险应对、战略与机制调整以及管理者激励等具有重要现实意义。在关注过度自信容易产生消极后果的同时,也应对金融危机等不确定条件的外部增加效应以及管理者的积极作用行为进行研究。实证分析发现:在金融危机后,过度自信的管理者对企业风险承担行为的影响有所下降,在使用动态指标衡量过度自信及应用总公司风险为风险承担度量时,实证结果依然稳健。这为丰富行为金融学高管管理特质的状态依赖性相关研究,以及如何调整企业管理者的激励政策提供了新的视角和一定经验证据。

Although prior studies have shown that CEO confidence increases firm’s risk-taking behaviour,few studies specifically explore whether the link between CEO overconfidence and a firm’s risk-taking influenced by a financial crisis.This paper investigates the effect of CEO overconfidence on the risk-taking behaviour of companies before and after the 2008 financial crisis.We find that the effect of CEO overconfidence on the risk-taking behaviour decreases after experiencing the 2008 crisis.The results are consistent using several time-varying overconfidence measures.The results remain robust using total firm risk.This paper attempts to shed light on the state dependence of the managerial traits of executives,and also has practical implications for corporate governance such as dynamically adjusting incentives for executive mangers after financial crisis.