基于K-Means聚类分析的长沙市常规公交与轨道交通竞合关系研究

Research on the Coopetition Relationship between Bus Transit and Rail Transit in Changsha City Based on K-Means Cluster Analysis

常规公交作为公共交通的主体,对促进城市可持续发展具有重要作用。在轨道交通快速扩张的背景下,常规公交客流量急剧减少,企业亏损严重。在轨道交通发展的新时期下,如何不断提高常规公交竞争力,推动公共交通共同发展是一个重要的社会问题。以长沙市为例,首先对常规公交现状及发展趋势进行了分析,提出常规公交面临出行效率低和线网规划不合理等问题;其次通过K-Means聚类算法探讨了常规公交线路与地铁线路的竞合关系,其中仅地铁1号线、3号线与公交线路关系较为理想,强合作关系公交线路比例在30%以上,地铁4号线、5号线与公交线路合作能力较差,多处于竞争关系和弱合作关系;最后针对长沙市公交线路规划存在的问题提出了调整方法,并结合实际情况提出常规公交未来的发展策略。

As the main body of public transportation,the normal bus plays an important role in promoting the urban sustainable development.Under the rapid expansion of rail transit,the passenger of bus transithas decreased sharply caused the enterprise has suffered serious losses.In the new era of rail transit development,how to continuously im-prove the competition of normal public transport and promote the common development of public transport is an im-portant social issue.Taking Changsha City as an example,the current situation and development trend of conven-tional public transportation is firstly analyzed to point out that bus transit faces problems such as low travel efficiency and unreasonable network planning;Secondly,the coopetition relationship between bus transit lines and subway lines is discussed by K-Means clustering algorithm.Among them,only subway line 1 and line 3 have ideal relation-ships with bus lines,and the proportion of bus lines with strong cooperative relationship is more than 30%.Subway line 4 and line 5 have poor cooperation ability with bus lines.Most of them are in competitive and weak cooperative relationship;Finally,according to the existing problems of Changsha bus route planning,the adjustment method is put forward as well as thedevelopment strategy of conventional bus in future.