基于可达性的城市道路交通量预测模型研究

Study on Urban Road Traffic Volume Prediction Model Based on Accessibility

为了合理预测城市道路的交通运行状况,在交通量预测模型中加入路网可达性则有利于保证预测结果的准确性。因此,简述了可达性的研究现状,提出了一种新的路网可达性评价模型,并将路网可达性引入传统四阶段模型,考虑了人口、经济和路网阻抗等因素;改进了传统四阶段模型的参数标定流程,采取一种自下而上的方式对交通分配、交通分布和交通发生吸引等阶段依次标定。为了验证模型的可实践性,将其应用到实际工程中,对南通市域范围内的路网进行分析,按用地性质将研究区域划分为17个交通中区,并串联路网结构,最后得出规划路网的远期交通量,为计划建设的城市道路提供了数据支撑。该模型考虑了诱增交通量,使得未来路网的运行状况更加明晰。该研究成果可为未来城市道路的建设提供参考。

In order to reasonably predict the traffic operation status of urban roads,that adding road network acces-sibility to the traffic volume prediction model is helpful to ensure the accuracy of the prediction results.Therefore,the current research status of accessibility is briefly described,proposes a new evaluation model for road network accessibility.The road network accessibility is introduced into the traditional four stage model,taking into account factors such as population,economy,and road network impedance.The traditional four stage model parameter cali-bration process is improved by a bottom-up approach adopt to calibrate the phases of traffic allocation,traffic distri-bution and traffic generation attraction in turn.In order to verify the practicability of the model,it is applied to actual projects of the road network within Nantong city area.The study area is divided into 17 traffic medium zones according to the nature of the land use,and linking the road network structure in series.Finally,the advanced traffic volume of the planned road network is obtained,which provides the data support for the planned construction of the urban roads.The model takes into account the induced incremental traffic volume,which makes the future road network operation clearer.The research results can provide a reference for the construction of urban roads in future.