基于TOPSIS-SIR模型的自建房火灾致因网络中关键节点研究

Research on Key Nodesof Fire Causation Network in Self-built House Based on TOPSIS-SIR Model

为减少我国自建房火灾的发生,基于事故致因“2-4”模型(24Model)分析自建房火灾事故案例,编码得到44个致因因素、4个事件和128条致因关系;基于复杂网络理论构建自建房火灾致因网络拓扑结构,并计算分析网络节点重要性指标;利用指标相关性权重确定法(CRITIC)计算网络节点重要性指标权重,运用逼近理想解排序法(TOPSIS)分析网络节点的重要性并排序;基于SIR模型仿真分析8种节点排序策略中重要节点的风险传播影响力。结果表明:TOPSIS、度、出度和中介中心性4种方法排名前3的节点相同,但排序不同,SIR模型仿真分析中重要节点对风险传播影响力较大,TOPSIS方法评估的重要节点具有最强的传播影响力;消防安全意识淡薄、消防安全隐患排查及整改不到位、业主未落实消防安全主体责任、违规扩建改造原有建筑、电气线路故障和大量易燃物品存放不规范为关键致因因素;针对关键节点提出防范措施,为预防和减少自建房火灾的发生提供支持。

In order to reduce the occurrence of self-built house fires in China,based on the 24Model of the accident causation,self-built house fire accident cases were analyzed,resulting in 44 causal factors,4 events,and 128 causal relationships.Based on the complex network theory,the topological structure of the self-built house fire causation network was constructed,and the importance indicators of network nodes were calculated and analyzed.The Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation(CRITIC)method was used to calculate the weight of network node importance indicators,and the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution(TOPSIS)method was used to analyze the importance of network nodes and sort them.Based on the SIR model,the risk propagation influence of important nodes in eight node sorting strategies were simulated and analyzed.The results show that the four methods of TOPSIS,degree,out-degree,and betweenness centrality have the same top 3 nodes except for the order.In the simulation analysis of the SIR model,important nodes have a significant impact on the risk propagation,and important nodes assessed by the TOPSIS method have the strongest propagation influence,and that weak fire safety awareness,inadequate investigation and rectification of fire safety hazards,failure of owners to fulfill their main responsibilities for fire safety,illegal expansion and renovation of existing buildings,electrical circuit failures,and the non-standard storage of large quantities of flammable materials are key causal factors.Preventive measures are proposed for key nodes to provide support for preventing and reducing the occurrence of self-built house fires.