数字经济对碳排放的空间非线性影响检验——基于半参数空间滞后模型

Testing the Spatial Nonlinear Effects of Digital Economy on Carbon Emissions——Based on Semi-parametric Spatial Lag Model

本文基于2013-2019年中国30个省(自治区、直辖市)的面板数据,利用面板数据基准回归模型、空间杜宾模型、半参数空间滞后模型和中介效应回归模型,实证分析了数字经济对碳排放的非线性影响、空间溢出效应及其作用机制。研究结果表明:(1)数字经济对碳排放存在“先促进,后抑制”的倒“U”型空间非线性影响;(2)数字经济对碳排放的影响存在显著的正向空间溢出效应,并且数字经济服务业的空间溢出效应大于数字经济制造业的空间溢出效应;(3)绿色技术创新、产业结构优化在数字经济与碳排放之间发挥着显著的中介效应;(4)数字经济对碳排放的影响存在异质性,中部地区的增碳效应大于全国和东部地区(中部>全国>东部)。据此提出,加快推动数字经济制造业和数字经济服务业协同发展,提升碳减排成效;充分发挥绿色技术创新、产业结构优化在数字经济与碳排放之间的中介效应,实现绿色低碳智能化转型;因地制宜、因时制宜完善数字经济碳减排策略,释放数字经济的碳减排潜力。

Based on the panel data of 30 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government)in China from 2013 to 2019,this paper empirically analyzes the nonlinear impact,spatial spillover effect and its mechanism of digital economy on carbon emissions by using panel data benchmark regression model,spatial Durbin model,semi-parametric spatial lag model and intermediary effect regression model.The results show that:(1)digital economy has an inverted“U”type spatial nonlinear effect on carbon emissions,which is"first promotion,then inhibition";(2)The digital economy has a significant positive spatial spillover effect on carbon emissions,and the spatial spillover effect of the digital economy service industry is larger than that of the digital economy manufacturing industry;(3)Green technology innovation and industrial structure optimization play a significant intermediary effect between digital economy and carbon emissions;(4)There is heterogeneity in the impact of digital economy on carbon emissions,and the effect of carbon increase in the central region is greater than that in the national and eastern regions(Central>National>Eastern).It is proposed to accelerate the coordinated development of digital economy manufacturing industry and digital economy service industry to improve carbon emission reduction effectiveness;Give full play to the intermediary effect of green technology innovation and industrial structure optimization between digital economy and carbon emissions,and realize green,low-carbon and intelligent transformation;Improve the carbon emission reduction strategies of the digital economy according to local conditions and time,and release the carbon emission reduction potential of the digital economy.