数字经济对制造业转型升级的影响——基于国家大数据综合试验区的拟自然实验

Impact of digital economy on the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry:a quasi-natural experiment based on the National Big Data Comprehensive Pilot Zone

将国家大数据综合试验区设立视为数字经济发展的一个拟自然实验,利用我国31个省(自治区、直辖市)2003—2020年的面板数据,从制造业结构合理化和制造业结构高级化两个维度,实证分析了数字经济发展对地区制造业转型升级的影响及作用机制。研究结果显示:无论是否纳入控制变量,数字经济发展对制造业转型升级具有显著正向效应;在替换被解释变量和剔除部分样本后,数字经济对制造业转型升级的促进作用仍然非常稳健;数字经济发展主要通过创新激励效应和需求拉动效应促进制造业结构合理化和高级化。

This article regards the establishment of National Big Data Comprehensive Pilot Zone as a quasi-natural experiment for the development of the digital economy.Using the panel data of 31 provinces(autonomous regions or province level cities)of China from 2003 to 2020,it empirically analyzes the impact and mechanism of digital economy development on the transformation and upgrading of regional manufacturing industries from two dimensions:rationalization of manufacturing structure and upgrading of manufacturing structure.The findings show that,regardless of whether control variables are included,the development of the digital economy has a significant positive impact on the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industries.After replacing the dependent variables and removing some samples,the promoting effect of the digital economy on the manufacturing transformation and upgrading remains robust.Mechanism analysis shows that the development of the digital economy promotes the rationalization and upgrading of manufacturing structure mainly through innovation incentive effects and demand pull effects.