水-土-能-碳关联下主产区粮食全要素生产率动态演进分析

Dynamic evolution analysis of grain total factor productivity in major producing areas under water-soil-energy-carbon correlation

提升粮食全要素生产率是保障国家粮食安全的根本动力。考虑“水-土-能-碳”关联,使用全局共同前沿下三阶段超效率EBM-GML模型,测度2000-2021年中国粮食主产区粮食全要素生产率,并分析其动态演进、外部环境因素影响和收敛性检验。结果表明:现实情况下粮食主产区全要素生产率的年增长率为1.007,粮食生产技术水平整体得到提高,东北地区粮食全要素生产率增长水平明显高于黄淮海地区和长江中上游地区;剔除外部环境因素和随机误差因素后发现,外部因素较大程度影响粮食全要素生产率的提升,整体存在着34.98%的潜力未得到释放,东北地区、黄淮海地区和长江中上游地区分别存在43.14%、24.01%和39.96%的提升潜力;粮食主产区整体全要素生产率指数存在收敛,三大地区收敛性存在差异,其中东北地区各项收敛程度最大。各地结合粮食全要素生产率改进方向和潜力进行调整的同时,通过降低各地区间的外部环境差异是实现粮食全要素生产率进一步提升的有效途径。

Improving grain total factor productivity is the fundamental driving force for ensuring national food security.Considering the“water-soil-energy-carbon”correlation,this paper uses the three-stage super-efficiency EBM-GML model under the global common frontier to measure the grain total factor productivity(TFP)in China's major grain producing areas from 2000 to 2021,and analyzes its dynamic evolution,influence of external environmental factors and convergence test.The results showed that the annual growth rate of total factor productivity in the main grain-producing areas was 1.007,and the grain production technology level was improved as a whole.The growth level of grain total factor productivity in Northeast China was significantly higher than that in Huang-Huai-Hai region and the middle and upper reaches of Yangtze River region.After eliminating the external environmental factors and random error factors,it was found that the external factors greatly affected the improvement of grain total factor productivity,and the overall potential was not released,while the northeast region,the Huang-Huai-Hai region and the middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River had a potential of 43.14%,24.01%and 39.96%,respectively.The overall total factor productivity index of the main grain producing areas has convergence,and the convergence of the three regions is different,among which the convergence of the northeast region is the largest.While adjusting the improvement direction and potential of grain total factor productivity in different regions,reducing the differences of external environment in different regions is an effective way to further improve grain total factor productivity.