山东省农业社会化服务水平时空演化及影响因素研究

Research on the spatio-temporal evolution of agricultural socialized service level and its influencing factors in Shandong Province

农业社会化服务是保障中国农业现代化及农业强国建设的重要举措。采用熵值法与探索性空间数据分析法,探讨山东省及其16地级市2011-2021年农业社会化服务水平的时空演变特征,并引入障碍度模型与空间计量模型探究内部制约与外部驱动因素。结果发现:(1)在时间上,山东省农业社会化服务水平总体呈波动上升趋势,但存在农业生产资料服务、农产品流通服务水平不足的短板;(2)在空间上,山东省农业社会化服务水平存在明显的空间集聚特征。其中,服务高水平集聚于鲁东地区,而低水平则集聚于鲁南地区;(3)内部制约上,山东省农业社会化服务受到阻碍作用最大的5个因子依次为农业保险深度、农药供应量、农业供电水平、农业贷款深度以及农业科技服务投入水平;(4)外部环境驱动上,城镇化水平、创新水平与工业化水平对山东省农业社会化服务有显著促进作用,而人力资本质量为抑制作用。

Agricultural socialization service is an important measure to ensure agricultural modernization and the construction of a strong agricultural country in China.This paper used entropy method and exploratory spatial data analysis method to explore the spatio-temporal evolution of agricultural socialization service level in Shandong Province and its 16 cities from 2011 to 2021,exploring the internal constraints and external driving factors by using obstacle degree model and spatial econometric model.The results showed that:①The agricultural socialization service in Shandong Province showed ascending trend by time series,but there were lower service level in agricultural production means and agricultural product circulation.②While in terms of space,it showed spatio-temporal non-equilibrium and spatial agglomeration.The high level of service was concentrated in eastern Shandong,while the low level was concentrated in southern Shandong.③For internal constraints,there were five factors that hinder the agricultural socialization service in Shandong Province,including the depth of agricultural insurance,the supply of pesticides,the supply of agricultural power,the depth of agricultural loans and the expenditure for agricultural science and technology service.④For external environment,the level of urbanization,innovation and industrialization had a significant role in promoting the agricultural socialization service in Shandong Province,while the quality of human capital stifles its development.