囊腔型肺腺癌临床多特征分析及浸润性风险预测模型的构建

Clinical Multi-features Analysis of Cystic Lung Adenocarcinoma and Construction of Invasive Risk Prediction Model

背景与目的囊腔型肺癌作为一种特殊类型的肺癌逐步得到人们的关注,其最常见的病理类型为腺癌。囊腔型肺腺癌的浸润性对诊疗方案的选择和预后至关重要。本研究旨在分析囊腔型肺腺癌临床多特征,探讨其浸润性的独立危险因素并建立风险预测模型。方法回顾性分析2021年1月至2022年7月于南京医科大学第一附属医院胸外科行手术治疗的129例囊腔型肺腺癌患者,根据病理结果分成浸润前组:非典型腺瘤样增生(atypical adenomatous hyperplasia,AAH)、原位腺癌(adenocarcinoma in situ,AIS)、微浸润型腺癌(minimally invasive adenocarcinoma,MIA)与浸润组:浸润性腺癌(invasive adenocarcinoma,IAC)。其中浸润前组47例,男性19例,女性28例,平均年龄(51.23±14.96)岁;浸润组82例,男性60例,女性22例,平均年龄(61.27±11.74)岁。收集两组病例多组临床特征,采用单因素分析、LASSO回归、多因素Logistic回归分析得出囊腔型肺腺癌浸润性的独立危险因素,建立浸润性风险预测模型。结果单因素分析显示年龄、性别、吸烟史、肺气肿、神经元特异性烯醇化酶(neuron-specific enolase,NSE)、囊腔数、病灶直径、囊腔直径、结节直径、实性成分直径、囊壁结节、囊壁光滑程度、囊腔形状、分叶征、短毛刺征、胸膜牵拉、血管穿行与支气管穿行在囊腔型肺腺癌浸润前组与浸润组间存在统计学差异(P<0.05)。上述变量经LASSO回归降维处理,进一步筛选出的变量包括:年龄、性别、吸烟史、NSE、囊腔数、病灶直径、囊腔直径、囊壁结节、囊壁光滑程度与分叶征,并纳入多因素Logistic回归分析,发现囊壁结节(P=0.035)与分叶征(P=0.001)是囊腔型肺腺癌浸润性的独立危险因素(P<0.05)。建立预测模型如下:P=e^x/(1+e^x),x=-7.927+1.476*囊壁结节+2.407*分叶征,曲线下面积(area under the curve,AUC)为0.950。结论囊壁结节及分叶征为囊腔型肺腺癌浸润性的独立危险因素,对囊腔型肺腺癌的浸润性预测具有一定的指导意义。

Background and objective Cystic lung cancer,a special type of lung cancer,has been paid more and more attention.The most common pathological type of cystic lung cancer is adenocarcinoma.The invasiveness of cystic lung adenocarcinoma is vital for the selection of clinical treatment and prognosis.The aim of this study is to analyze the multiple clinical features of cystic lung adenocarcinoma,explore the independent risk factors of its invasiveness,and establish a risk prediction model.Methods A total of 129 cases of cystic lung adenocarcinoma admitted to the Department of Thoracic Surgery of the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University from January 2021 to July 2022 were retrospectively analyzed and divided into pre-invasive group[atypical adenomatous hyperplasia(AAH),adenocarcinoma in situ(AIS)and minimally invasive adenocarcinoma(MIA)]and invasive group[invasive adenocarcinoma(IAC)]according to pathological findings.There were 47 cases in the pre-invasive group,including 19 males and 28 females,with an average age of(51.23±14.96)years.There were 82 cases in the invasive group,including 60 males and 22 females,with an average age of(61.27±11.74)years.Multiple clinical features of the two groups were collected,including baseline data,imaging data and tumor markers.Univariate analysis,LASSO regression and multivariate Logistic regression analysis were used to screen out the independent risk factors of the invasiveness of cystic lung adenocarcinoma,and the risk prediction model was established.Results In univariate analysis,age,gender,smoking history,history of emphysema,neuron-specific enolase(NSE),number of cystic airspaces,lesion diameter,cystic cavity diameter,nodule diameter,solid components diameter,cyst wall nodule,smoothness of cyst wall,shape of cystic airspace,lobulation,short burr sign,pleural retraction,vascular penetration and bronchial penetration were statistically different between the pre-invasive group and invasive groups(P<0.05).The above variables were processed by LASSO regression dimensionality reduction and screened as follows:age,gender,smoking history,NSE,number of cystic airspaces,lesion diameter,cystic cavity diameter,cyst wall nodule,smoothness of cyst wall and lobulation.Then the above variables were included in multivariate Logistic regression analysis.Cyst wall nodule(P=0.035)and lobulation(P=0.001)were found to be independent risk factors for the invasiveness of cystic lung adenocarcinoma(P<0.05).The prediction model was established as follows:P=e^x/(1+e^x),x=-7.927+1.476*cyst wall nodule+2.407*lobulation,and area under the curve(AUC)was 0.950.Conclusion Cyst wall nodule and lobulation are independent risk factors for the invasiveness of cystic lung adenocarcinoma,which have certain guiding significance for the prediction of the invasiveness of cystic lung adenocarcinoma.