渤海和黄海北部工程设计冰厚变化趋势分析

The trend of sea ice design thickness for the Bohai Sea and Northern Huanghai Sea

针对渤海和黄海北部沿岸风电、光伏和核电等新兴能源中的工程海冰设计问题,本文研究了重现期冰厚及其在大气候背景下的变化趋势。本文分析72 a冰级时间序列表明渤海和黄海北部总体冰情等级呈明显下降趋势;在此影响下,基于20 a渤海和黄海北部海冰多源观测数据和精细化海冰数值预报资料,研究发现不同重现期冰厚较之前海冰区划值存在不同程度的降低。此外,不同场址设计冰厚受当地海洋环境条件影响较大,单一参考海冰区划值可能存在较大误差。研究表明:针对特定作业地点的工程设计冰厚,需要有针对性地开展精细化评估并考虑大气候背景变化的影响,才能为相关工程海冰参数设计提供更加可靠的依据。

In recent years,clean energy such as wind power,photovoltaic and nuclear power has been widely devel-oped in the coastal waters of the Bohai Sea and the northern Yellow Sea.This paper focuses on investigating the sea-ice thickness of return period.Ice grades of time series for past 72 years significantly declines for the researched regions.Based on the multi-source observation data and refined numerical forecast data of sea ice in the past 20 years,this paper analyzes the ice conditions for this area.The results show that the ice grades present a downward trend for past more than 20 years.Under the influence of this general trend,the ice thicknesses decrease for differ-ent return periods comparing with the thicknesses from the sea ice zones.The design ice thickness of different sites is greatly affected by the local marine environmental conditions.In order to satisfy the needs of ocean engineering,it is necessary to assess sea ice parameters by updating the time series of yearly maximum thickness.