“一带一路”倡议是否缓解了中国产能过剩?——来自281个城市群的样本测算

Has the Belt and Road Initiative Alleviated China's Overcapacity?——Sample Estimation from 281 Urban Agglomerations

“一带一路”倡议是否缓解产能过剩是新时代中国经济迈向高质量发展阶段亟待探讨的问题。本文首先采用数据包络分析(DEA)法测算中国城市群的产能利用率,然后通过PSM-DID方法实证分析“一带一路”倡议是否缓解了中国产能过剩,并探讨中间传导机制。研究发现,我国产能利用率总体偏低,东部城市产能利用率高于中西部城市。“一带一路”倡议有效缓解了中国过剩产能,主要通过营造良好的政策环境、提升对外直接投资水平以及推进海外工程项目合作三大机制。本文的发现为“一带一路”倡议与我国产能治理提供理论依据与实践参考。

The question of whether the"Belt and Road"Initiative has alleviated overcapacity is an urgent issue in China's economic transition towards high-quality development in the new era.This study first uses Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA)to measure the capacity utilization rate of Chinese urban agglomerations.Then,it employs the Propensity Score Matching with Difference-in-Differences(PSM-DID)method to empirically analyze whether the"Belt and Road"Initiative has alleviated overcapacity in China and explores the intermediate transmission mechanism.The research finds that China's overall capacity utilization rate is relatively low,with eastern cities having a higher utilization rate than those in central and western regions.The"Belt and Road"Initiative effectively alleviates China's overcapacity,mainly through three mechanisms:creating a favorable policy environment,enhancing the level of outward foreign direct investment,and promoting cooperation in overseas engineering projects.The findings of this study provide theoretical basis and practical reference for the relationship between the"Belt and Road"Initiative and China's capacity governance.