女性围绝经期膝关节骨性关节炎早期预警模型的构建研究

Construction of early warning model of perimenopausal knee osteoarthritis in women

目的 了解女性围绝经期膝关节骨性关节炎(KOA)的影响因素,建立围绝经期KOA早期预警模型,并检验其效能。方法 选取我院2019年1月至2021年1月收治的1 276例围绝经期女性进行回顾性调查。采用单因素分析、多因素分析和列线图分析围绝经期女性发生KOA的影响因素。结果 Logistic回归分析结果显示,体重、膝关节高强度运动、肝肾亏虚证、白细胞介素-1(IL-1)、肿瘤坏死因子-α(TNF-α)均是围绝经期女性发生KOA的危险因素,而雌二醇(E2)是保护因素(P<0.05)。列线图分析表明,膝关节高强度运动、肝肾亏虚证、体重增加、IL-1和TNF-α水平增加、E2水平降低对女性围绝经期是否发生KOA有显著的预测价值。结论 基于女性围绝经期KOA早期预警模型具备较准确的预测能力,综合预测准确性较高,通过概率计算可在多地区人群中使用。

Objective To understand the influencing factors of perimenopausal knee osteoarthritis(KOA)in women,to establish an early warning model of perimenopausal KOA,and to test its efficacy.Methods A retrospective investigation was conducted on 1276 perimenopausal women admitted in our hospital from January 2019 to January 2021.The influencing factors of the occurrence of KOA in perimenopausal women were analyzed by univariate analysis,multivariate analysis and nomogram.Results Logistic regression analysis results showed that weight,high-intensity exercise of knee joint,deficiency syndrome of liver and kidney,interlenkin-1(IL-1)and tumor necrosis factor-α(TNF-α)were all risk factors for the occurrence of KOA in perimenopausal women,while estradiol(E2)was protective factor(P<0.05).The analysis of the column chart showed that high-intensity exercise of knee joint,deficiency syndrome of liver and kidney,weight gain,increase of IL-1 and TNF-αlevels,and decrease of E2 level had significant predictive value for the occurrence of KOA in perimenopausal women.Conclusion The early warning model based on perimenopausal KOA in women has relatively accurate prediction ability,high comprehensive prediction accuracy,and can be used in multi-regional population through probability calculation.