基于养老金收支平衡的最佳退休年龄预测

Prediction of the Best Retirement Age Based on Pension Balance

随着我国人口老龄化问题逐步突显,合理平衡养老金收支,调整退休年龄势在必行。通过一元线性回归模型对人口平均寿命进行逐年预测,通过时间序列模型对平均工资进行逐年预测,建立基于养老金收支平衡的最佳退休年龄预测模型,预测出我国男性的最佳退休年龄为66岁,女性的最佳退休年龄为61岁,可据此对退休年龄制度进行适当调整,保障延迟退休改革的平稳进行。

With the the population aging in China,it is imperative to balance pension payments reasonably and adjust retirement age.The study predicts the average life expectancy of the population year by year with linear regression model;and the average salary year by year with time series model,and constructs the optimal retirement age prediction model based on the pension payment balance.It is predicted that the best retirement age for men and women is 66 years old and 61 years old,so the retirement age system can be properly adjusted to ensure the steady progress of the reform of delayed retirement.