空铁公竞争下的高铁货物快递发展研究

Research on the Development of High-speed Railway Cargo ExpressDelivery Under the Competition of Air and Highway

为充分发挥高铁快递优势,对高铁快递做SWOT分析,建立灰色预测模型和Logit模型,预测未来高铁快递的需求量。结果表明,我国高铁快递应为实力型战略定位,在基础设施、服务组织方式等方面做出改进。未来,高铁快递量将持续增长,优势运距为500~1000 km。应完善货运区、快件通道、装卸器具等设施设备,增加当日达和次晨达服务比重,设计容量大、速度快的快运专列,此结果可为高铁线路货运专列的开行提供参考。

In order to give full play to the advantages of high-speed express delivery,the study conducts SWOT analysis of high-speed express delivery,establishes grey prediction model and Logit model to predict the future demand of high-speed express delivery.The results show that China’s high-speed railway express delivery should be a strong strategic positioning,and it needs to be improved in infrastructure,and service organization,etc.In the future,the express delivery volume of high-speed railway will continue to grow,and the advantageous transport distance will be 500~1000 km.It is necessary to improve facilities and equipment,such as freight areas,express lanes,loading and unloading equipment,etc.;increase the proportion of same-day and next-morning delivery service;and design express special trains with large capacity and fast speed.The results can be used as reference for the operation of freight trains on high-speed railway lines.