“杯水车薪”抑或“雪中送炭”——低利率环境下货币政策的有效性研究

“A Drop in the Ocean”or“Offer Fuel in Snowy Weather”——Research on the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in a Low Interest Rate Environment

为应对内需不足的内部环境和严峻复杂的外部环境,我国货币政策仍将保持低利率状态,然而低利率环境下货币政策的实施效果究竟如何是政策制定者的核心关切。现有对于低利率环境下的货币政策有效性研究大多集中于发达国家,缺少对于当前中国情景下的深入探讨,而且局部投影模型尚未应用于货币政策非对称效应的研究。本文首先构建理论框架系统性分析了我国高、低利率时期货币政策的作用机理,然后基于状态依存局部投影模型定量分析了我国高、低利率时期货币政策的时变效应。研究发现:(1)我国扩张性货币政策冲击无论在高、低利率时期均能有效提升产出,从而实现预期的调控效果。(2)我国暂未陷入“流动性陷阱”,低利率时期扩张性货币政策冲击对产出、投资和消费的效应会增强,货币政策确实能起到“雪中送炭”的作用,常规货币政策尚能有效刺激消费和投资意愿,进而拉动总需求。(3)高杠杆会增强低利率时期产出和投资对扩张性货币政策冲击的响应,但会削弱消费的响应,这是因为高杠杆促使企业减少用于缓解日常运转的资金,增加用于长期投资的资金,高杠杆还会增加居民房地产投资,增强流动性约束,从而挤占居民消费。文章结论为优化货币政策有效性,增强货币政策传导效果提出建设性政策建议。

Affected by the internal environment of insufficient domestic demand and the complex external environment,China′s monetary policy will remain at a low interest rate.However,it is worth discussing the effect of monetary policy imple⁃mentation in a low interest rate environment.The People′s Bank of China lowered the 7-day reverse repurchase and mediumterm lending facility interest rates twice in June and August 2023,exceeding market expectations.The purpose is to guide the market interest rate to moderately decline,and then stimulate market demand.China′s interest rate level is already at a his⁃torical low.In this context,it is worth discussing whether monetary policy,as an important means of macroeconomic regula⁃tion,can still achieve the expected effects.Scholars have not yet reached a consensus on the effectiveness of monetary policy during periods of low interest rates.Most research focuses on developed economies,with limited discussion on the effects of China′s monetary policy during peri⁃ods of low interest rates.However,China′s low interest rate situation is different from other countries,so it is urgent and realis⁃tic to discuss this issue.In addition,compared with vector autoregressive(VAR)models,local projection(LP)models have multiple advantages such as flexible model settings,robust estimation results,and small measurement errors.However,the lo⁃cal projection model has not yet been applied to the study of asymmetric effects of monetary policy.Firstly,this paper constructs a theoretical framework to systematically analyze the mechanism of monetary policy during the periods of high and low interest rates.Then the state-dependent local projection model is used to quantitatively analyze the time-varying effects of monetary policy under different periods.The key findings can be summarized as follows:(1)China′s expansionary monetary policy shocks can effectively increase output in both high and low interest rate periods,pro⁃ducing the expected regulatory effects.(2)China has not fallen into the"liquidity trap".The effects of expansionary monetary policy shocks on output,investment and consumption will be enhanced during periods of low interest rates.Monetary policy can indeed play a role in providing timely assistance.Conventional monetary policy can still effectively stimulate consumption and investment willingness,thereby boosting aggregate demand.(3)High leverage enhances the response of output and in⁃vestment to expansionary monetary policy shocks but weakens the response of consumption in a low interest rate environment.High leverage encourages enterprises to reduce the funds used to alleviate daily operations and increase the funds used for long-term investment.High leverage also increases residential real estate investment and enhances liquidity constraints,thereby crowding out residential consumption.The conclusions of the paper put forward constructive suggestions for optimiz⁃ing the effectiveness of monetary policy and enhancing the transmission effect of monetary policy.